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John Reade @JReade_WGC
, 7 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
Gold: Mukesh Kumar, manager of research for @GOLDCOUNCIL in India, has spent the past few days talking to contacts across the Indian #gold market. The first thing I would observe is that the NCDEX polled premium is now positive (data to 20 August) 1/6
Gold: Mukesh notes that there will be an impact from the recent devastating Kerala floods and that the Onam festival will see less #gold demand than normal. But almost all the contacts believe the impact of the flooding will be temporary and should be limited to Q3-18. 2/6
Gold: For country as a while, almost all elements of the trade (fabricators, retails, dealers, banks and industry associations) are positive about #gold demand in H2-18. 3/6
Gold: Indian rural demand for #gold in Q3 has been modestly stronger than last year, based on a small sample of retailers in semi-urban / rural towns. 4/6
Gold: Sentiment at India’s largest wholesale event, India International Jewellery Show held in August, was healthy and large jewellery fabricators are very optimistic about #gold demand in H2-18, especially via the organised sector. 5/6
Gold: Much of this uplift in #gold demand is expected to come through in Q4-18.

I have more detail from Mukesh if anyone would like it. 6/6
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Gold: Bit of a groundhog day today, gold at $1283/oz, slightly weaker in Asia trading overnight after talks of 'good progress' on US-China trade talks. US Equity futures modestly green and ETFs added gold again, now the eight straight day.

1/2
Gold: my technical analysis-minded frieds have noted that gold had done a lot, quickly, and that it would be healthy if the market saw a period of consolidation to let the RSI come lower - perhaps what's happening now is healthy.

2/2
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Gold: Considering that we had a very strong Employment Report out of the US on Friday, #gold performed pretty well over the past 18 trading hours. At $1291/oz at the time of writing it is some $15 above its post-NFP plunge and only about $7 below Friday morning's high.

1/6
Gold: This strength in #gold is not coming from US equity market fears, as US futures are roughly flat.

2/6
Gold: Rather it appears to be a combination of a modestly weaker US dollar, shown here as DXY over the past three days...

3/6
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Gold: I find it ironic that that the government shutdown is making it 'harder' to trade #gold with confidence.

The CFTC's commitment of traders (COT) report is delayed indefinately while the US government is out of action.

1/3
Gold: Fortunately, Comex is not a government entity and continues to function. As you can see from here, open interest is reported daily and has increased quite a lot (4moz equiv) since 18 December.

2/3
Gold: Simplistically, with gold prices going up and OI up, speculators are likely adding to longs, driving the OI change and helping the price move higher.

I estimate the net managed money long is now at least 6.5 moz but could be more if short covering has happened too.

Ends
Read 4 tweets

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