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An #IR_True_NonTrivial thread to end your week!
I’ve posted threads this week on IR research influenced by the 2008 Russo-Georgian War.
But you know a research area not influenced by the war? The study of interstate war!
Let me explain (by going a bit into the data).
An #IR_True_NonTrivial thread to end your week!
I’ve posted threads this week on IR research influenced by the 2008 Russo-Georgian War.
But you know a research area not influenced by the war? The study of interstate war!
Let me explain (by going a bit into the data).
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Consider the core database used by scholars of interstate war, the Correlates of War (COW) Project
correlatesofwar.org
Consider the core database used by scholars of interstate war, the Correlates of War (COW) Project
correlatesofwar.org
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Or consider the OUTSTANDING book (I reference this book A LOT) that contains narratives of each war in the COW dataset, “Resort to War 1816-2007” by Meredith Sarkees & Frank Wayman (CQ Press of @SAGECQPolitics)
amazon.com/Resort-War-181…
Or consider the OUTSTANDING book (I reference this book A LOT) that contains narratives of each war in the COW dataset, “Resort to War 1816-2007” by Meredith Sarkees & Frank Wayman (CQ Press of @SAGECQPolitics)
amazon.com/Resort-War-181…
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Presently, the COW Interstate War Dataset only goes to 2007.
But the Correlates of War Dyadic Inter-State War Dataset does cover 1816 to 2010.
correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/COW-…
Presently, the COW Interstate War Dataset only goes to 2007.
But the Correlates of War Dyadic Inter-State War Dataset does cover 1816 to 2010.
correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/COW-…
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Given that it goes to 2010, the Russo-Georgian War is listed, right?
Well...
Given that it goes to 2010, the Russo-Georgian War is listed, right?
Well...
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...here’s the last Interstate war entry. Hmmm….it’s the Iraq War…in 2003
...here’s the last Interstate war entry. Hmmm….it’s the Iraq War…in 2003
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So no Russo-Georgian War?
According to COW coding rules, it was not an interstate war. 🤔
So no Russo-Georgian War?
According to COW coding rules, it was not an interstate war. 🤔
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That’s because a war requires, according to COW, 1,000 battle deaths.
That’s because a war requires, according to COW, 1,000 battle deaths.
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According the “authoritative” source of Wikipedia, the Russo-Georgian War did not reach that level. Not quite 400 were killed.
According the “authoritative” source of Wikipedia, the Russo-Georgian War did not reach that level. Not quite 400 were killed.
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Admittedly, these are enough deaths for the Russo-Georgian “War” to be considered a “dispute” according to the COW “Militarized Interstate Dispute” data.
Here is the link to the MID data cleaned and recoded by @dmgibler and his team:
dmgibler.people.ua.edu/mid-data.html
Admittedly, these are enough deaths for the Russo-Georgian “War” to be considered a “dispute” according to the COW “Militarized Interstate Dispute” data.
Here is the link to the MID data cleaned and recoded by @dmgibler and his team:
dmgibler.people.ua.edu/mid-data.html
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The Russo-Georgian War also had enough deaths to be considered an “Armed Conflict” by @UCDP and @PRIOUpdates
ucdp.uu.se
The Russo-Georgian War also had enough deaths to be considered an “Armed Conflict” by @UCDP and @PRIOUpdates
ucdp.uu.se
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Nevertheless, this “conflict/dispute” is still not officially a “war”.
This matters for scholars who are interested in studying interstate war and wish to separate out “lower levels” of fighting.
But it also points to a more profound issue…
Nevertheless, this “conflict/dispute” is still not officially a “war”.
This matters for scholars who are interested in studying interstate war and wish to separate out “lower levels” of fighting.
But it also points to a more profound issue…
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Look again at casualty figures for this war. Notice the number wounded: over 1,500.
That’s important! As @tanishafazal pointed out a few years ago in @Journal_IS, modern field medicine means many “wounded” would in modern wars have been killed in past wars.
Look again at casualty figures for this war. Notice the number wounded: over 1,500.
That’s important! As @tanishafazal pointed out a few years ago in @Journal_IS, modern field medicine means many “wounded” would in modern wars have been killed in past wars.
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In other words, the Russo-Georgian War may not count as an interstate war because of improved medicine, not because the fighting as any less intense than some past conflicts classified as interstate wars.
In other words, the Russo-Georgian War may not count as an interstate war because of improved medicine, not because the fighting as any less intense than some past conflicts classified as interstate wars.
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Additionally, while the war was short (5 days), that’s just one day less than another famous short war
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_W…
Additionally, while the war was short (5 days), that’s just one day less than another famous short war
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_W…
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And before we think that the 1,000 battlefield deaths metric is sacrosanct for COW, consider another famous war that *is* found in the COW interstate war dataset
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falklands…
And before we think that the 1,000 battlefield deaths metric is sacrosanct for COW, consider another famous war that *is* found in the COW interstate war dataset
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falklands…
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Here are the casualty figures for the Falklands War
Here are the casualty figures for the Falklands War
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*Just* under 1,000 (904 – which is the same as the COW figure).
Given the randomness of war fighting, that’s close enough, right?
*Just* under 1,000 (904 – which is the same as the COW figure).
Given the randomness of war fighting, that’s close enough, right?
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The point is that the failure of COW to include the Russo-Georgian War should NOT be chalked up to “Well, that’s the coding rule.”
That statement is true, but maybe we need to rethink the coding rule?
I’ll write more on this in an upcoming #IR_True_NonTrivial thread.
The point is that the failure of COW to include the Russo-Georgian War should NOT be chalked up to “Well, that’s the coding rule.”
That statement is true, but maybe we need to rethink the coding rule?
I’ll write more on this in an upcoming #IR_True_NonTrivial thread.
