Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

1/ Will the (potential) withdrawal of US troops from Syria make the situation better or worse?

Below are some #IR_True_NonTrivial publications that are helping me think through this issue.

2/ On the one hand, @bfwalter showed in @IntOrgJournal that outside intervention is frequently necessary to end civil wars...

cambridge.org/core/journals/…

3/ ...and @PageFortna showed in @ISQ_Jrnl that outside enforcement is needed to maintain peace settlements

academic.oup.com/isq/article-ab…

4/ On the other hand, Pat Regan argued in his @UofMPress book that a key to intervention success is "the existence of a coherent intervention strategy". Hmmm, that might not be present in the case of the US involvement in Syria

books.google.com/books/about/Ci…

5/ Moreover, David Cunningham in @JPR_journal shows that intervening states can make matters worse if the intervention strategy is at odds with the goals of any of the internal combatants

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…

6/ This is consistent with the recent finding (in a paper I've highlighted before) of Lise Morjé Howard & @AlexMStark in @Journal_IS that "civil wars tend to end the way external actors think they ought to end" if at all

mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.116…

7/ In short: absent a coherent goal/strategy, the US should probably stay out.

8/ Of course, there is a massive literature on the topic of civil war intervention and its role in civil war outcomes. But these pieces should help one to think about the fallout of a US withdrawal from Syria.

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