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Cezary Podkul @Cezary
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Important story by @hgillers about a risky strategy that often backfires

Chicago’s New Idea to Fix Its Pension Deficit: Take On More Debt. Proposed $10 billion bond would be biggest pension obligation bond ever issued by a U.S. city wsj.com/articles/chica…
Reminds me of this 2015 @ProPublica piece I did with Allan Sloan the last time cities and states were seriously looking at borrowing to shore up underfunded pensions. Our headline says it all: When Wall Street Offers Free Money, Watch Out
propublica.org/article/when-w…
Here's a big reason why funding ratios often don't improve after cities & states take on more debt: They borrow big and then go short on contributions to pension plans.
projects.propublica.org/graphics/pensi…
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My latest: I've been on the mortgage trail lately, trying to figure out why Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would buy and securitize loans like these.

Fake tenants, fake income, but real loans? U.S. pursues one of the largest mortgage-fraud probes since 2008
wsj.com/articles/u-s-p…
Loans for apartment buildings where owners allegedly staged units to make them look occupied -- by playing radios inside units or putting doormats outside -- have sparked one of the biggest mortgage fraud probes since the 2008 financial crisis.

wsj.com/articles/u-s-p…
Lax and fraudulent lending on single-family homes before 2008 played a role in inflating and popping the housing bubble a decade ago. As demand for rental housing grows, will lax standards spread to the multifamily housing market?
Read 9 tweets
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“This generation was left on their own like no other generation before.”

A must-read on America's looming retirement crisis from @hgillers @annetergesen @lesliescism

A Generation of Americans Is Entering Old Age the Least Prepared in Decades
wsj.com/articles/a-gen…
And two related stories on this:

Growth in retiring baby boomers is straining U.S. entitlement programs: The ratio of retiree-aged adults to those of working age is rising, as @janetadamy and @poverberg reported yesterday.

wsj.com/articles/retir…
The solution is either:
a) Americans can have more babies, or
b) Boosting the working ranks with more immigration

But American women are having children at the lowest rate on record:
wsj.com/articles/u-s-b…

That adds another dimension to debate in Washington over immigration
Read 3 tweets
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Interesting parting thoughts from NY Fed President Bill Dudley -- as of Monday, former NY Fed President -- on bank culture and supervision:

medium.com/new-york-fed/c…
These thoughts from Dudley matter a lot as we reflect on 2008 crisis:

"We expect trustworthy conduct from banks because they are so important to the nation’s economy"

"Culture matters. Change is possible, but difficult. It’s better to pay attention sooner than later."
And offer a good reminder of this @ProPublica @Jake_Bernstein series about why strong supervision matters a lot too:
propublica.org/series/fed-tap…
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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"[Trump] said no changes can be made to Medicare and Social Security,.." so again, his tune changes. I hope that this holds, but I'm doubtful. #SundayMorning #Deficit
wapo.st/2FDysP2?tid=ss…
2/"President Trump is demanding top advisers craft a plan to reduce the country’s ballooning budget deficits, but the president has flummoxed his own aides by repeatedly seeking new spending while ruling out measures needed to address the country’s unbalanced budget. Trump’s
3/"deficit-reduction directive came last month, after the White House reported a large increase in the deficit for the previous 12 months. The announcement unnerved Republicans and investors, helping fuel a big sell-off in the stock market. Two days after the deficit report,
Read 38 tweets
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#New Traders, Understand #Mathematics Of #Profit In Market Before You Put Hard #Earned Money On Risk.

Expectancy = Success Rate x Reward Risk Ratio

Lets Talk About Expectancy Of Short Term Directional Trading System.

Read On (1/n)
Success Rate = No Of Profitable Tades/ No Of Loss Making Trades

Reward Risk Ratio = Average Profit Per Trade / Average Loss Per Trade

If Success Rate is 0.5 and Reward Risk 2, Then

Expectancy = 2 x 0.5 =1

For Making Profit, Expectancy Should Be Positive Number (2/n)
To Calculate Expectancy, You Need Defined System With Rules To Get Success Rate and Reward Risk. If You Have No System To Take Decisions, You Are Hanging In Thin Air and Will Never No Whether You Will Keep Making Or Loosing Money In Future (3/n)
Read 12 tweets
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#10yearson is there a risk of another bailout? As with most financial crises, the 2008 GFC was caused by excessive private debt & unconstrained bank lending – that ultimately allowed for sub-optimal allocation of credit, reckless risk taking and rampant speculation.
In the 1980s, private debt in the UK had never gone beyond 75% relative to the UK economy’s income - by 2008, it increased to 200%. Throughout this period government debt remained steady between 35 – 50% of GDP. Striking given government debt and the ​‘deficit’ got all headlines!
Since 2008, a number of positive regulatory reforms have reduced the risk of another bailout. Including things like ring-fencing and the introduction of a macroprudential regulatory framework- with tools like capital requirements, debt-to-income ratios, counter-cyclical buffers.
Read 12 tweets
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#Chicago #Illinois #USA #tcot #MAGA #BlackTwitter
Dear Chicago..
We hear your cries..
All across the Nation & around the World..
Those covering-up for these criminal actors deserve to be held criminally accountable as well. ei: Mainstream Media Censorship
@realDonaldTrump offered to send help= Rahm Emanuel said NO!
Chicagoan's NEED to reverse the STRICT anti-gun laws, then learn proper use, care, & safety then... USE THOSE GUNS to protect themselves from criminals INCLUDING their leaders. That is exactly what the 2nd Amendment was designed for!
Read 3 tweets
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#NEW on ARC2020: #CAP & #MFF | Eco-Spin without Public Goods Substance.
Its been 2 weeks since the MFF proposals, here's our round up of some of the perspectives so far.
All perspective-givers tagged in picture.
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
What's needed?
@davidbaldock & Allan Buckwell of @IEEP_eu:
1: Sufficient funding for environmental measures in Pillar 1
2: Specifics for New Delivery Model
3: Flexibility for Pillar 1 to 2 transfers
4. Fund ANCs under Pillar 1
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
#MFF #FutureofCAP #CAP
And who said: "unconditional direct income support to farmers is manifestly absurd in today’s world when it maintains uncompetitive farming practices that have negative implications for the climate, the environment or people’s health"?
Why @AnnikaAhtonen of @epc_eu
Read 8 tweets
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Having finished The Authoritarians, it's time to start a new thread of #IanLivetweetsHisResearch. Today I am finally getting past the introduction of How Propaganda Works by Jason Stanley.
Having slogged through some proper academic writing in my day, Stanley's writing is blessedly accessible. But after Altemeyer's light tone and constant dad jokes, Stanley's reads as pretty dry.
So far the introduction is full of a lot of quotations about the nature of democracy, from Victor Klemperer to Elizabeth Anderson to Plato. OF COURSE Plato.
Read 409 tweets

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