R1/ HOW DOES EVIDENCE CHANGE OPINIONS?
My analysis of allegations vs @alfranken & especially media's serious failures to carefully investigate them is:
@the_unitron asked excellent question, well worth a formal thread to answer:
My analysis of allegations vs @alfranken & especially media's serious failures to carefully investigate them is:
@the_unitron asked excellent question, well worth a formal thread to answer:
R2/ Summary, explanations follow
Major changes from original (sympathetic) views
5 Lie <= False (long disproof, Imagination(I) possible)
8 Lie <= False (I)
Lesser shifts
6 False <= Unproven (I or AI)
1 Lie, 100% <= Lie (from 2009 USO-Metro), but possible botched practice kiss
Major changes from original (sympathetic) views
5 Lie <= False (long disproof, Imagination(I) possible)
8 Lie <= False (I)
Lesser shifts
6 False <= Unproven (I or AI)
1 Lie, 100% <= Lie (from 2009 USO-Metro), but possible botched practice kiss
R3/ I've heard enough credible #MeToo in person & read well-vetted ones in @washingtonpost, @nytimes, @NewYorker, as well as about cases gone wrong.
P7-P13 and
O thread
P7-P13 and
O thread
R4/ Some assume just "Deliberate(D) misbehavior" versus "She Lied(L)."
Z & M threads
From experience, butt-brush Accidents (A) happen in photo ops, friendly hugs can miss & people can Imagine(I) or misinterpret actions.
Hence, (DAIL) possibilities used.
Z & M threads
From experience, butt-brush Accidents (A) happen in photo ops, friendly hugs can miss & people can Imagine(I) or misinterpret actions.
Hence, (DAIL) possibilities used.
R5/ An allegation might be True (Deliberate) or Lie, but could be False without being Lie, if Accident, Imagination or AI combination.
DAIL were all considered possible, although odd D explanation often implied Franken was crazy.
P7
DAIL were all considered possible, although odd D explanation often implied Franken was crazy.
P7
R6/ I found media had not done serious investigations like those in R3.
Photos mostly seemed ordinary photo ops
but were treated as absolute proof of Deliberate misbehavior.
They not only weren't, but sometimes refuted claims
8-17
Photos mostly seemed ordinary photo ops
but were treated as absolute proof of Deliberate misbehavior.
They not only weren't, but sometimes refuted claims
8-17
R7/ Media gave NO independent contacts or eyewitnesses to misbehavior, despite very public circumstances for most:
I'd earlier read excellent postmortem on Rolling Stone U VA fiasco that failed by reliance on single real source:
I'd earlier read excellent postmortem on Rolling Stone U VA fiasco that failed by reliance on single real source:
R8/ Lead media stories included little or no Web searching for other photos, videos, articles or complainants' social media, from which relevant facts were easily findable, some in a few minutes, some needing more akin to @alice_crites' digging:
R9/ #5 Kemplin Lie <= False (long disproof, Imagination(I) possible)
1st thread:
Detailed analysis of odd claim showed physically very unlikely, given short arms & body sizes, but sympathetically, maybe stress-induced Imagination (K43), thus False.
1st thread:
Detailed analysis of odd claim showed physically very unlikely, given short arms & body sizes, but sympathetically, maybe stress-induced Imagination (K43), thus False.
R10/ Twitter is strange medium for serious writing, but sometimes helps crowdsourcing research:
@the_unitron discovered key evidence I'd missed, photo in local media that was less-cropped than one @CNN used.
See photo near end:
cincinnati.com/story/news/201…
@the_unitron discovered key evidence I'd missed, photo in local media that was less-cropped than one @CNN used.
See photo near end:
cincinnati.com/story/news/201…
R11/ After discussion & discovery of even less-cropped photos, it was clear Kemplin sat on autograph table, making physical impossibility even more obvious:
That changed Lie<==False & highlighted talks with Tweeden, who would have known table if seen.
That changed Lie<==False & highlighted talks with Tweeden, who would have known table if seen.
R12/ Kemplin said she had PTSD & memory problems.
If she only had small photo, she might have Imagined grope, amplified by malleable memory, but she owned uncropped picture of autograph table between her & Franken, never mentioned.
She Lied, either she or @CNN cropped table away
If she only had small photo, she might have Imagined grope, amplified by malleable memory, but she owned uncropped picture of autograph table between her & Franken, never mentioned.
She Lied, either she or @CNN cropped table away
R13/ She was interviewed often, her story repeated without real question.
Franken's compassion for soldiers was proven by his 7 USO tours:
Reporters didn't seem to wonder about claim he'd harass a female soldier during photo in front of other troops.
Franken's compassion for soldiers was proven by his 7 USO tours:
Reporters didn't seem to wonder about claim he'd harass a female soldier during photo in front of other troops.
R14/ #8 Dupuy Lie <== False (I)
@TinaDupuy's own "waist grope" story was especially weird, but I originally
ascribed it to mismatched personal space expectations,
i.e. Imagination, maybe from childhood,
even with later Franken-supportive tweets:
B1-B11
@TinaDupuy's own "waist grope" story was especially weird, but I originally
ascribed it to mismatched personal space expectations,
i.e. Imagination, maybe from childhood,
even with later Franken-supportive tweets:
B1-B11
R15/ In Feb 2018, I was doing W5H checks, trying to find date of party, stumbled across her blog posts, which proved she ~stalked Franken there, was thrilled with picture, not humiliated, so her @TheAtlantic story was a Lie trying to support earlier tales
R16/ I don’t know why she did it, but she got an interview on @CNN the next day and got widespread attention. When people say that there were 8 credible complaints against @AlFranken, they are counting this one.
R17/ # 6 Anon3 False <= Unproven (I or AI)
Original story seemed unlikely: attempt to force kiss onstage that ~750+ people in audience didn't notice.
Still this could have been misinterpreted hug by woman traumatized as child, hence Unproven (I or AI).
Original story seemed unlikely: attempt to force kiss onstage that ~750+ people in audience didn't notice.
Still this could have been misinterpreted hug by woman traumatized as child, hence Unproven (I or AI).
R18/ Evidence I'd missed on first pass moved opinion to False.
Although events are still unclear, her effusive, unrequired blog post a few days later shows lack of immediate upset.
They key town bulletin board has been reorganized, so now harder to find.
Although events are still unclear, her effusive, unrequired blog post a few days later shows lack of immediate upset.
They key town bulletin board has been reorganized, so now harder to find.
R19/ #1 Tweeden Lies, 100% <= Lie with slight uncertainty on kiss
My original post was early, before I formalized DAIL model or looked much at others.
Many doubted the histrionic complaints, especially given quickly-found
friendliness at 2009 USO-Metro.
My original post was early, before I formalized DAIL model or looked much at others.
Many doubted the histrionic complaints, especially given quickly-found
friendliness at 2009 USO-Metro.
R20/ After working on summaries & W5H analyses of articles, I decided to do a more comprehensive #1 Tweeden thread to organize the numerous images, videos, articles I'd collected, but not posted.
That resolved some ambiguities & exposed more Lies.
That resolved some ambiguities & exposed more Lies.
R21/ Having read of body armor problem in Iraq ~2004, I thought "grope" photo was joke she'd understand, even if bad taste.
In 2017 I was not sure entertainers wore ceramic SAPI plates (which make photo even sillier), but more photos verified that.
In 2017 I was not sure entertainers wore ceramic SAPI plates (which make photo even sillier), but more photos verified that.
R22/ The alleged "forced-kiss" seemed unlikely, seemed copied from @RepSpeier's (credible) account, but might have been a botched practice kiss,
although she wasn't angry.
Later investigation proved that implausible, especially via Turner video:
N72-N75
although she wasn't angry.
Later investigation proved that implausible, especially via Turner video:
N72-N75
R23/ When annotating her blog post & interviews, it was clear she carefully avoided describing the 2-fake-stage-kiss sequence, whose whole point is Franken NOT getting a kiss, but getting soldier onstage, as inspired by Hope.
R24/ Her whole story was a well-crafted Lie, she was not angry at Franken, but the media (especially @CNN):
- gave her massive broadcast exposure & stories that just repeated her claims
- then sought instant reactions from many others who had zero knowledge about events.
- gave her massive broadcast exposure & stories that just repeated her claims
- then sought instant reactions from many others who had zero knowledge about events.
R25/ Done for now.
IMHO:
3 outright Lies, if under oath to Senate, likely perjury
3 False stories, absurd/conflicting details
2 Unproven, too vague
I think none of these allegations would prevail in an ethics review.
If more evidence emerges, I'll revise opinions as needed.
IMHO:
3 outright Lies, if under oath to Senate, likely perjury
3 False stories, absurd/conflicting details
2 Unproven, too vague
I think none of these allegations would prevail in an ethics review.
If more evidence emerges, I'll revise opinions as needed.
