The danger of a ‘blind Brexit’ ft.com/content/589459… via @financialtimes Interesting analysis calling for a thread.1/
Looks increasingly like the EU and the UK will not be able to agree on anything more than a vague statement of intent on future trade. So Withdrawal Agreement kicking the can down the road.2/
Difficult for UK Parliament to reject. So may take us to actual Brexit on 30 March 2019. Cliff edge avoided for ... 21 months. Not a long period to negotiate everything. 3/
UK will have lost any withdrawal leverage, particularly the exit bill. But perhaps this is double edged. EU may be more relaxed, and both sides can look at the issues without withdrawal background noise. 4/
On the other hand, consequences of leaving the internal market are still completely underestimated. For instance, all of the issues for importers & exporters listed in the UK no-deal papers also apply with an FTA. 5/
Plus blind Brexit means the acrimonious debate goes on and on. I don’t think people will switch off just because the UK is out. 6/
21 months just won’t be enough. It’s not just the negotiations with the EU - there are also all the negotiations with the rest of the world. On present form: can’t see it happen. 8/
So at some point a second ref seems unavoidable. Not to be relished. End/
