Thread by @Usherwood

So, we now have some more text from Hard Brexit camp:

1/

Following on the tails of the 'World Free Trade Deal' (economistsforfreetrade.com/publication/a-…), we now have an ERG proposal for the Irish border (scribd.com/document/38842…)

2/

Add to that the very public plotting last night at ERG (bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…) and you'd think it was all coming to a head

3/

Certainly getting documents out allows them to say they've set ideas out in print and it's all easily done

4/

However, the response to those documents has been highly critical, from w/in CON, EU, and experts, both on procedural points and on estimates of benefits

(tl;dr the plans don't work operationally or w/in legal architectures, with harshly -ve economic results)

5/

Remember that these are only partial documents, and ERG/Hard camp retreated from a macro-plan, not least because of internal splits

6/

So the gain of having text is more than balanced by loss in credibility of plans (esp in CON circles, which will be first & crucial arena)

7/

As for the 'plotting'; this only underlines that ERG aren't a majority of CON MPs, so can't definitely control any leadership contest.

Thus, it's more about cage-rattling to push May towards their policy than about replacement

8/

Tellingly, still nowhere near point of arguing that anyone wld be better than May: if that happened, then game changes markedly, although still with risk that she cld survive confidence motion in absence of heir-apparent

9/

Overall, feels like lots of bark, but not much bite

/end

Worth adding that while might be able to maintain position in public opinion (esp w those who are only marginally interested), backward mvt w party. So a long-term strategy, at best