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Scott Irwin @ScottIrwinUI
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. In case you missed on Friday, my new #FDD on SREs and ethanol demand destruction. To date, I could not find much if any drop based on ethanol blend rates. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/09/small-…
2. Summary point #1: Could be E10 ethanol demand destruction with SREs in the future if price of ethanol goes above price of gasoline.
3. Summary point #2: SREs have reduced the demand for E15 and E85 but hard to measure since it is so small. Further expansion of the demand for higher ethanol blends is not in the cards so long as SREs are granted (and not reallocated).
4. Summary point #3: Demand for biomass-based diesel has been reduced in direct proportion to the impact of SREs on total obligated gasoline and diesel gallons because the biomass-based diesel mandate is highly binding.
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1. You know I could not let this E15 thing go. I am going to come at from a different angle this morning. I want to start by reviewing what I have previously stated as my general position on the RFS.
2. My position is that the RFS is the law of the land. Congressional intent when the RFS was passed could not be clearer. It was designed to force biofuels into the transportation fuel supply. The RFS is the law and ag should be able to expect the law to be enforced faithfully.
3. Don't take my word about Congressional intent for the RFS. Here is what a U.S. Federal Appeals Court said about the matter in July 2017. Could not be more clear cut.
Read 12 tweets
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1. I do not regard myself as an "ethanol-friendly" economist. Just an economist. This gives me the chance to straighten out the record a bit.
2. My position is that the RFS is the law of the land. Congressional intent when the RFS was passed could not be clearer. It was designed to force biofuels into the transportation fuel supply. That is the law and ag should be able to expect the law to be enforced faithfully.
3. If you think the RFS is a bad law, then get Congress to change it. If you can't get Congress to change it, then learn to live with it. Undermining the law by creating backdoor waiver authorities through SREs ultimately undermines the rule of law.
Read 6 tweets
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1. I am not spinning or blowin' smoke. I think the lack of impact of SREs on ethanol demand is the best news that Corn Belt farmers have received in awhile. Here is the first blend rate measure I looked at. #FDD farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/09/small-…
2. Here is another measure of ethanol blend rate. More volatile but same message.
3. This chart show why SREs have not damaged ethanol demand. I think breakeven ethanol/gasoline price ratio is 1 after considering tradeoff of energy penalty and octane benefit (wash). Who is going to stop blending ethanol 40% below the breakeven?
Read 11 tweets

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