1. I am not spinning or blowin' smoke. I think the lack of impact of SREs on ethanol demand is the best news that Corn Belt farmers have received in awhile. Here is the first blend rate measure I looked at. #FDD farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/09/small-… 
2. Here is another measure of ethanol blend rate. More volatile but same message.
3. This chart show why SREs have not damaged ethanol demand. I think breakeven ethanol/gasoline price ratio is 1 after considering tradeoff of energy penalty and octane benefit (wash). Who is going to stop blending ethanol 40% below the breakeven?
4. The only reason for expecting SREs to damage ethanol demand is if you think that the breakeven ethanol/gasoline price ratio is below 1. Like if you only consider ethanol energy penalty, Then breakeven would be 0.67. But this is not the message from the markets.
5. Clarification. Breakeven price ratio for ethanol/gasoline is 1 for E10. Not the case for higher blends because I don't think the additional octane in E15 and E85 has market value.
6. I know it is counter-intuitive but there is no relationship between D6 RIN prices and ethanol prices. The reason is that D6 RINs reflect cost of breaching the blend wall not the cost of blending below the blend wall. Basically two different markets. Again, good news.
7. If SREs reduced ethanol demand substantially, say 10%, then how can the corn being used to make ethanol continue grow yoy? Yes ethanol exports have been growing but not enough to offset that kind of decline demand.
8. This chart really tells the good news story of the competitiveness of ethanol in the E10 gasoline blend. Look at the yoy growth rates for corn ethanol grind in May-Jul 2018: +4%, +6%, +5.8%. Imagine the corn S/D if SRE demand destruction was true?
9. Just to be clear. My personal position is still that mass SRE waivers without reallocation are directly contradictory to Congressional intent on the RFS. However, the damage from the SRE waivers to date on Corn Belt farmers has not been nearly as severe as many think.
10. My rough guess on "demand destruction" is -100MG of ethanol and -300MG of biodiesel. Yes, every gallon matters but a lot better than -1.2BG of ethanol and -300MG biodiesel.
11. Here is the link to my SRE and ethanol demand destruction article farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/09/small-…
