1/Spent some time look at post Labor Day polling and have some thoughts, observations. A short thread.
2/National landscape appears to have shifted 2-4 points towards Dems since mid-August. @FiveThirtyEight has Trump's approval going fr -10 in mid August to -13/14 now. Looking across many polls feels like there was a structural shift, making pre late August polls unhelpful now.
3/Looking at Senate since mid August, Rs do not definitely lead in any of the major battlegrounds (AZ, FL, IN, MO, MS2, MT, ND, TN) w/possible exception of North Dakota. In Texas Cruz has been up by 4 pts or less in last 4 polls. And folks need to start paying attention to MS2.
4/@Nate_Cohn's House polling project for the NYTimes has similar findings - GOP ceiling lower than they want, Dems not there yet, many many very close races. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
5/Gov's races also showing signs of GOP/Trump fade. Rs now not clearly ahead in FL, GA, IA, MI, OH, PA, WI - the heart of the Presidential battleground. realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/go…
6/Conclusion? Dogfight. Rs ceiling appears to have come down in last few weeks, Dems have clear shot at flipping both chambers (Senate a bit tougher) and winning Govs races in critical 2020 states. But this thing isn't cooked, and unlike 2016 Dems will have to close strong.
7/Taken together my guess is Rs cut on Kavanaugh and prevent his troubled candidacy from further eroding/interfering with their election prospects/strategy. Slippage of another 2-3 pts will likely flip both chambers. What can Trump do to regain mo in closing weeks? Hard to see.
8/Update on @Nate_Cohn House project. Only 2 of 15 polled GOP held seats finds the R at 50 +. The rest are in low to high 40s. Reinforces earlier point that GOP ceiling seems really low right now as late breakers *often* go against party in power. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
