Thread by @DrJoeAbah

NIGERIA AIR: My thoughts. Having been too busy to follow the news since yesterday afternoon, I have only just learnt of the “indefinite suspension” of the Nigeria Air initiative. As it was announced by Minister of Aviation himself, it is safe to comment on it immediately. Thread.

In the public service, “indefinite suspension” is almost always a polite way of saying something has been cancelled. Having announced the “unveiling” of Nigeria Air to the world at large, this is a shocking embarrassment to the govt on a global scale. How could it have happened?

Commentators on the Nigeria Air could be divided into 4.
1. Those ideologically committed to the “free market”, who think government should be out of the way and everything should be left to “markets.”
2. Those that thought the necessary steps for it were not put in place first.

3. People that wanted the initiative to succeed/fail, to score political points ahead of the elections.
4. Prayer warriors praying for success/failure.

Perhaps there’s a 5th group: Those that want to gloat that they were right and Joe Abah was wrong. To these, I say “Enjoy.”😂

On ideology, I do not subscribe fully to any ideology. However, I am persuaded that virtually every country that has developed quickly in the last 50 years have done so with a developmental intervening State. Of course markets are left to work but government also intervenes.

Therefore, I am still attracted by the idea of a national flag carrier for Nigeria, if it can be done in a way that makes sense. Examples are Emirates, Turkish, etc.

I’ll come last to the second school of thought (those that said the right prior things not having been done).

Those that comment for political point-scoring, I’ll also say “Enjoy.” What to bear in mind is that if Nigeria works, it works for all of us. If it falls, the heavens won’t fall on supporters of only one particular political party if they were to fall.

For prayer warriors on both sides, I would say “Don’t worry.” Sometimes, your prayers are answered because it is in your interest. Sometimes, your prayers are not answered because what you prayed for is bad for you. In that case, God has a better plan than what you prayed for.

I’ll now come to the main issue, how the “indefinite suspension” of Nigeria Air could have happened. That’s the real issue of concern, in my view. It is an issue of concerned to me because it is a governance issue, not an ideological, political or religious one.

I find it difficult to believe that we could have gone to the world to announce Air Nigeria without the initiative first being considered in the Economic Management Team or the Federal Executive Council. What we don’t yet know what led to the “indefinite suspension.”

Whatever it is, FEC didn’t like it. I would have thought that a full feasibility study and a cast-iron business case would have gone first to EMT, then to FEC and that it is only when everyone is satisfied that it is made public. It is also advisable to have public consultations.

With people like Enelamah, an investment banker and Fashola who has delivered projects in Lagos, FEC would have put the proposal through rigorous approval before the Minister is given the go-ahead to brief the public. It seems that the issue came to AFTER it has been announced.

It is, of course, possible that FEC approved it earlier but the business case and feasibility study were later shown not to be realistic when exposed to the market and idea was shelved. Either way, it is a huge embarrassment for the government and something that was avoidable.

That public funds were expended in all of this, at a time when people are struggling, is painful. The Minister has promised to provide more details later. It had better be good. @DoubleEph was right after all. It was better that it failed quickly before it cost too much. End!