Thread by @quirkyllama

The closer we get to end of Q3, the more I wonder what $TSLA's plan for Nov is.
All signs point to AWD backlog being exhausted by end of Oct. Steady state demand is something like 1-1.5k/wk. What's the plan for Nov?

If the plan is EU, don't they need to open configs very soon? TMC reports typical production -> delivery time for EU is ~60 days. So if they started shipping cars today, first ones would be delivered Nov 22.

If they are going to start selling in EU, why not open configs now? Get the $2500 cash on the books for Q3? This is a point which has surprised me. They left US customers waiting for months without qualms- why not EU customers?

Maybe we'll see EU open up soon, but there's been absolutely no leak/pump for that. Maybe they are holding that till they release Q3 #'s to distract? Seems like a weak play- why not start putting cars on to boats now?

Alternative is SR M3. Problem is that's a money loser. Maybe they increase base price by forcing FSD feature? Still a few $K less pricey + hope to get folks who want tax credit?

Another alternative is they have no plan at all. Given Musk runs everything seat-of-the-pants, and all the execs who might actually say something to him have left, it's entirely possible they are just careening from disaster to disaster without a plan.

That was the M3 launch "plan": start deliveries without an actual assembly line.
That seems to be the 5k/wk delivery "plan": Err... figure out how we can do 5k/wk now that we've got thousands of cars piled up.
Also the $420 "plan"- figure out the details after the tweet.

The next few weeks are going to be interesting. Q3 print will be OK, but then they hit the demand cliff within weeks. The most likely scenario is EU announcement, it's just puzzling they haven't already done so.