These divisions were always over-reported and over-spun by No-10. Yes, some say different but in 27 context (viz Orban last week) they don’t. And drill down with their dips on how far they really support splitting freedoms? Not so much. I’ve tried. Doesn’t stack up IMO.
Then May/No10 over reads what she gets told in bilaterals (where she is wooden and hopeless) and takes what one EU dip from big EU state said to me were “mere generalities, pleasantries” about “wanting a deal” for a willingness to cross major red lines. Salzburg says not.
May’s problem is that she’s asking for special treatment in the Trump-Orban-Salvini era and Macron’s people says he sees Brexit in that sweep. As does Commission and Berlin (though less aggressively) which makes U.K. pitch v hard.
Then we assume that this negotiation is “like all EU negotiations” and ends in a deal and a fudge at 11th hour. But that overlooks fact we’re leaving. The paradigm doesn’t apply in same way. We will be a “third country” and competitor. So dynamic v different.
Also the Withdrawal Agreement (and backstop) is a legal text, not a political one. So non-fungible. The Future Dec is more fudgy, but if all May’s border unicorns are dead what’s left to be read into pledges on “facilitations”? Not much. Ends
