On the Kavanaugh vote, my sense is that six votes are in play right now: Collins, Murkowski, Manchin, Heitkamp, and Donnelly. That could shift depending on what the FBI finds, but if there are no bombshells, they're likely it.
Flake has to be assumed to be a likely "yes" vote, since that's how he initially came out today, and Donnelly a likely "no" for the same reason, but Donnelly emphasized process issues in his statement this morning, so he could move.
If all that is correct, there are 46 solid "no" votes, and the Dems need five out of the six to get to the 51 they need. So Flake can flake, but only if all the others vote no.
And assuming that the nomination doesn't completely implode, it's not likely that any of the six will declare one way or the other until after the FBI investigation is done. None of them want to announce either way if they don't have to.
The existence of the FBI investigation takes away one reason to vote against Kavanaugh, but the investigation could turn up additional evidence of seriously bad stuff, so I have no guess as to how the vote itself will go.
(I didn't mention Flake in the list of senators in the first tweet, but obviously he's the sixth.)
And as for Donnelly, see the text of his announcement today—he said he was opposed "under these circumstances," and expressed his desire for an FBI investigation.
