1/ Have heard some argue: "The German car industry will force EU concessions to avert a No-Deal Brexit."
That's a bold hypothesis. I wanted to lay out the assumptions required.
Ergo, it's thread time y'all.
That's a bold hypothesis. I wanted to lay out the assumptions required.
Ergo, it's thread time y'all.
2/
Assumption 1: The UK trade exposed segment of Germany's automanufacturing sector has enough clout to drive the collective position of the entire industry.
Assumption 1: The UK trade exposed segment of Germany's automanufacturing sector has enough clout to drive the collective position of the entire industry.
3/
Assumption 2: The German auto industry has sufficient clout to sway the government of Germany into very publicly reversing its current position (put forth at Chancellor level).
Assumption 2: The German auto industry has sufficient clout to sway the government of Germany into very publicly reversing its current position (put forth at Chancellor level).
4/
Assumption 3: Germany has sufficient clout to sway the EU27 into very publicly reversing their positions (put forth at Leaders level) .
Assumption 3: Germany has sufficient clout to sway the EU27 into very publicly reversing their positions (put forth at Leaders level) .
5/
Assumption 4: The German automotive industry lobby was either lying when it said in 2017 the integrity of the Single Market takes precedence, or has since reconsidered that position.
Assumption 4: The German automotive industry lobby was either lying when it said in 2017 the integrity of the Single Market takes precedence, or has since reconsidered that position.
6/
Assumption 5: The German Government did not and has not been consulting closely with its auto industry throughout the negotiations and is somehow ignorant of their views (hence continued strong statements).
Assumption 5: The German Government did not and has not been consulting closely with its auto industry throughout the negotiations and is somehow ignorant of their views (hence continued strong statements).
7/
Assumption 6: All those involved are prepared to spend what must be a huge amount of their political capital to secure a Withdrawal Agreement that offers no certainties beyond the two year transition period.
Assumption 6: All those involved are prepared to spend what must be a huge amount of their political capital to secure a Withdrawal Agreement that offers no certainties beyond the two year transition period.
8/ It's entirely valid to read all those and on reflection believe they are valid assumptions.
I would however consider assigning each a % chance, just to guestimate the compound likelihood of Chancellor Merkel riding to the rescue on a White E Class.
/Thread
I would however consider assigning each a % chance, just to guestimate the compound likelihood of Chancellor Merkel riding to the rescue on a White E Class.
/Thread
