Canada and the U.S. have reached a NAFTA deal, concluding a difficult 13-month negotiation that had hindered the Canadian economy and damaged bilateral relations. Early story from me and @TondaMacC: thestar.com/news/world/201…
No details yet. News of any deal, though, is likely to cheer businesses around the continent. It means Canada has - at least for now - gotten Trump' to buy in to an accord he has repeatedly threatened to kill. And it gives Trump a trade "win" to tout, regardless of what's in it.
Many caveats. Particular industries in Canada and the U.S. might be unhappy with particular provisions. And, critically, the three countries' legislatures have to approve the deal. Canada and Mexico will be easy; the U.S. Congress might not be. Old NAFTA stays in effect for now.
We might not be done with Trump termination threats forever. If Congress drags its feet on approving the new deal, for example, Trump could threaten to terminate the current NAFTA to put Congress in a "take the new one or take nothing" position. Long way to go. But big news.
Deal is likely to include a guarantee that a certain number of Canadian car exports will be protected from tariffs - a significantly higher number than is currently exported to the US. Above that, Trump could hypothetically impose tariffs.
Don't have details yet! We'll know more by tomorrow. The dairy lobby said they wanted zero concessions, and Trudeau almost certainly made some concessions, so there might be some degree of unhappiness. We Will See.
Nope. I am a fount of non-information right now. More info coming tonight, and then a lot more tomorrow.
The name NAFTA is likely to change. Trump, often concerned about branding above all else, says he wants to call it "USMC," for US-Mexico-Canada - "like the United States Marine Corps, which I love." We will see how the United States Marine Corps feels about this.
An excellent point. For example, Canada likely made a concession to the U.S. to raise Canada's low threshold for duties being applied to U.S. goods bought by Canadian online shoppers. That's a "win for Trump." but also benefits Canadian consumers.
Lots of NAFTA details being provided by Trump administration officials, without a huge amount of apparent spin, on a media call going on now, embargoed for a little while longer. Will post shortly.
Here are details of the NAFTA agreement according to Trump officials. As always, we need to corroborate. 
Per Team Trump: 1) Chapter 19 and cultural exemption stay, as Trudeau demanded. 2) US gets more dairy access than the 3.25% Canada granted to partners in TPP, as Trump demanded. 3) No major changes on TN visas. 4) Steel, alum tariffs unresolved.
5) A side agreement on auto tariffs; wouldn't go into details, but Canadian sources say that a certain number of Canadian cars, significantly higher than the current number exported to the U.S., will be guaranteed protection from any future Trump "natl security" tariffs.
One thing worth watching for is what kind of sunset clause there is, if any; U.S. official said there was a "review and termination provision" but didn't go into much detail.
Here's the joint Lighthizer-Freeland statement.
These are mostly incremental changes to NAFTA, though some are significant. But Trump will likely sell this as an entirely new thing, because he's Trump and because he is selling his South Korea trade changes as an entirely new thing even though they're more minor than this.
Canadian Chamber of Commerce statement: "Delighted" to learn of a deal; need to learn the details on various policy issues; also should learn a lesson from this "turbulent" period: "We must never again allow ourselves to be overly-dependent upon one trading partner."
Maybe the most important policy change in the deal has barely been discussed in recent weeks - it significantly changes the trade rules governing auto manufacturing. The U.S. and Mexico worked that out in August, so Canada didn't have to deal with it now.
The U.S. has published the text of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. ustr.gov/united-states-…
Also notable: Trump official said U.S. and Canada agreed to phase out "Chapter 11" investor-state system that allows companies to sue governments. Canadian official told me weeks ago that Trudeau wanted to get rid of it, though he hadn't said this out loud.
More details, from a Canadian official to @TondaMacC:
- Deal gives U.S. access to 3.6% of Canadian dairy market. (TPP was 3.25%)
- Canada gets 2.6 million exported cars protected from any tariffs. Currently ships 1.8 million, so official says Canada "effectively" exempted
- Deal gives U.S. access to 3.6% of Canadian dairy market. (TPP was 3.25%)
- Canada gets 2.6 million exported cars protected from any tariffs. Currently ships 1.8 million, so official says Canada "effectively" exempted
From the text of the deal: Canada has agreed to the U.S. demand of copyright terms of the life of the author plus 70 years, up from the standard life plus 50.
Here's the sunset in new NAFTA: the deal expires in 16 years unless, after 6 years, the parties agree to renew it for another 16 years. If they don't all agree at the 6-year mark, they keep meeting every year to try to hash out their issues until they can agree to another 16.
