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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
As a heads up, 3Q fundraising numbers are going to start to populate our model over the next few days. In a few races, the numbers are already in. "Fundamentals" forecasts may change slightly as a result. 53eig.ht/2Cil4g4
So far, Montana-At Large is the race where this has made the biggest difference. The Democrat, Williams, has almost caught up to Gianforte in $$ and that's improved her odds a bit. Still "Lean R" but weird polling here & inching closer toward tossup. 53eig.ht/2RPu7dw
These numbers have generally been very positive for Democrats. Some places where our forecast has shifted a bit as a result of good D fundraising: NY-2, NY-27, ME-2, MN-1, NY-23.
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Also, a lot of primary campaigns don't feature major differences among the candidates on policy. Clinton and Obama had very little to divide them in 2008, for example.
Elections are mostly *not* about wonky arguments over policy. Or to put it another way, you could have exhaustive coverage of the candidates' policy positions and still have plenty of time left over for the horse-racier aspects of the campaign.
So while I'm a huge fan of some of the people making this critique (e.g. @jayrosen_nyu and @Sulliview), I find "cover elections thru policy, not the horse race" to be a bit of a red herring. The argument should really be about whether there's too much *election* coverage, period.
Read 3 tweets
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Not sure this is a fight worth getting into but FWIW, as someone who knows a relatively large amount about New York restaurants, this claim—that the restaurant where AOC worked was put out of business by a minimum wage hike—is dubious at best.
The restaurant, Coffee Shop, was closed mostly it occupied a lot of square footage and because rents are very high in Union Square, where it's located. A ton of restaurants in that area, including the iconic Union Square Cafe, have recently closed or relocated.
The owner did cite the minimum wage as one of a "combination of factors", but also said most of his employees were already making above the NYC minimum wage. Also, the concept was pretty dated, and the restaurant was poorly reviewed on Yelp, etc. fxn.ws/2F8ds1T
Read 4 tweets
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My basic view on Warren's chances is bearish. For whatever reason (she's seen as old news? the DNA test? sexism/she reminds voters of Hillary?) her polling has been quite poor especially given her high name recognition. Her margins of victory in MA also have also not been great.
BUT you could make a decent "buy low" case on Warren. She probably has a better chance than Sanders of bridging the gap between the left and the party establishment. She's always raised a ton of money. Voters know what she stands for. Women did well in the 2018 primaries.
Not exactly the right analogy, but Warren's path to victory might be something like McCain's in 2008, who was left for dead by pundits at certain early points in the nomination process, but was fundamentally a strong candidate and eventually benefited from a "comeback" narrative.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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🚨#Q is back! 🚨

This will be my Q thread for Dec 3rd

Big week ahead, Patriots!

[PAIN IS COMING]
2. QDrop 2537

What are the odds of a state funeral on #D5?
How many coincidences until mathematically impossible?

#QAnon
3. QDrop 2538

Q links an article posted a few days ago regarding the 4 different ongoing investigations into CF and explains further of how [they] have become unhinged.

Panic > RATS
Read 80 tweets
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Thread.

1) Lawrence, Ma fires. Over 100 fires over 50 explosions in 3 different towns and VERY FEW INJURIES, no deaths reported. 39 different locations already reported. Something is fishy, very fishy. #Qanon #WWG1WGA
2) someone want to explain how everyone was already in place? Within an hour after the first set of explosions???
3) "PANIC IN DC"?? statements start a FIRE?
On the 11th Q posted "Panic in DC." in 7 posts in a row. On the 12th Q said ""PANIC IN DC" statement start a FIRE" and today over 100 buildings in 3 towns within a few hours catch fire or explode due to natural gas issues.
Read 24 tweets
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1) This is my #Qanon thread for September 8, 2018

Q posts can be found here: qanonmap.bitbucket.io

Android apps:
bit.ly/Q_Drops
bit.ly/Q_Alerts

My theme: Activate Sleepers Cells
2) A "sleeper" is someone who joins a community pretending to share their values, while secretly opposing them.

At a strategic time, the "sleeper" is signaled to "awaken" or become active. They carry out their covert mission of disrupting or destroying the community. #Qanon
3) The term "sleeper" is often used to describe terrorists, but the same principle applies to other types of "sleepers" including intelligence operatives who infiltrate organizations and movements.
#Qanon
worldview.stratfor.com/article/unders…
Read 196 tweets
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Thread/Rant on NATO from an Old Guy

1. A lot of heat but not much light in the news about NATO these days. The legacy media is propping up the Europeans after Trump eviscerated them in meetings this week. Watch the embedded video in this piece below!

theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/07/11/epi…
2. Here’s a reasonable description of NATO over the years for background purposes.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO
3. NATO has evolved greatly over the years since it was formed as a collective defense organization to combat the Soviet threat, particularly the projected Soviet tank army push through the Fulda Gap in Germany during what could only be described as “World War III.”
Read 14 tweets
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468-How do I know these two organizations are associated? and/or work together? ☝️
Good question & is super hard to pinpoint. Sometimes is due to common projects in same locations (usually masked by a third or fourth party), & sometimes are certain names that pop in both
#Q
469-But sometimes, it is due to silly little mistakes like this article 👇
Here Dr. #Lee is credited with #COTN, except the charity 'children of the night's' site was never #COTN but this one
childrenofthenight.org
Sure this might just be all coincidence and/or mistake
except...
470-Who is funding #Childrenofthenight? 🤔
Well, the late Johnny Carson host of 'Tonight Show' & Hugh Hefner (from #Playbody Mansion)
I don't know about Mr. #Carson, but rumour has it he had a very active sex live& even an x-rated tape got leaked to media.
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2…
Read 25 tweets
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1. The sleeping giant is slowly awakening to the corruption that is enslaving us all.

Once this giant has fully awoken we shall be unstoppable.

Public awakening is their greatest fear.

#QAnon @POTUS @realDonaldTrump
2. It’s essential that #WeThePeople understand how #Corruption in the pharmaceutical industry has a stronghold on people.

#QAnon @POTUS @realDonaldTrump
3. This long & detailed thread will shine light on corruption in the vaccine and cancer industry.

These are complicated & touchy parts of the #DeepState rabbithole for obvious reasons but facing the #Truth is very important.

The truth shall set everyone #free.

#QAnon @POTUS
Read 109 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Qanon8chan #EnemyCombatant #immunization #BigPharma #FLOTUS #ICYMI #EVIL #DOJ #IStandWithGeneralFlynn #Coup #Snowden #QanonPosts #MAGA #MbS #HRCVideo #SantaT #ChangeTheDate #Qteam #WorldWide #Hollywood #POTUS #LGTB #swamp #Humantrafficking #DOITQ

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