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Jennifer Rankin @JenniferMerode
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Ireland's foreign minister Simon Coveney lowers expectations about Brexit summit:

"I think it is unlikely there will be a lot agreed tomorrow night."

"There is going to be a need for a signal from the negotiating teams that a new summit is necessary before it is called."
Key backstop words for Ire *unless and until*

Coveney: "the backstop would be there unless and until some other solution has been agreed and found. That is the text that has been agreed last march and that is the text that we expect will be the basis of the final agreement."
The "unless and until" reference comes from the March version of the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement.
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It's tempting to think the EU has a big plan if MPs vote down the Brexit deal.

But it hasn’t: the EU will improvise to protect its well-known positions and interests, depending on the result.

theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
There is an EU summit two days after the meaningful vote. If, as everyone expects, parliament votes no, even the British gov and MPs won’t have much time to figure out next move, let alone the EU.
In the event of a No vote, I think we could see: a special EU27 summit “for optics” that decides little but shores up unity, usual respects and regrets, step-up no-deal planning if things look bad. But summit planners say *nothing has been decided*
Read 7 tweets
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Brussels Brexit latest -- EU27 ministers met Michel Barnier and decided (no surprises) that negs on withdrawal agreement are finished.
"The question now is whether there is approval of this deal in the UK and the european parliament," said Austria's Gernot Blümel
Everyone bending over backwards not to say anything that might inflame UK domestic politics.
Barnier even used Brexiteer slogan 'take back control'
Full quote here
I am reminded of earlier EU comments: 'the UK wants to take back control, the EU wants to keep control'.

Judging by today's press conference, EU feels it has done so.
Read 5 tweets
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Brussels Brexit latest: Michel Barnier has proposed extending the transition period until end 2022 - his offer on filling in the famous XX in the draft withdrawal agreement.

Neither agreed, nor rejected by EU27.
Not agreed by UK. EU still awaiting UK proposal.
IF it happened (a big IF) UK would be subject to EU rules 6.5 years after vote to leave.

How much would it cost? Don't know, but UK paid 9.6bn net to EU in 2016, which wd have been £14.5bn w/o rebate.
Barnier made this proposal at a meeting of EU27 ambos earlier today to discuss withdrawal agreement and political declaration.
Sounds fairly consensual, but...
Read 7 tweets

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Northern Ireland is sleepwalking into an off-script unification, which commands a majority in the north but not in the south, or one which Dublin has failed to prepare for. A late Aug poll says Brexit creates a 52-39 majority for unification in NI. No Brexit, 52-35 favours stay.
However, only 31% of voters to the south favour unification if this increases taxes. (This compares with 63% if taxes remain the same - 2015 BBC/RTÉ poll.) NI would lose or displace to Dublin the current £10n annual subvention. Shifted to Dublin, this hits living standards 15%.
The budgetary subvention from Dublin has made up 20-25% of regional GDP since the Troubles. A third of all NI employees are in the public sector. Pushed on to the southern budget, this locks in a similar fiscal adjustment to the financial crisis.
Read 12 tweets
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#Brexit thoughts this AM. The draft Withdrawal Agreement has a Northern Ireland sub-committee to the Joint Committee and sounds like there's been progress on an arbitration panel for the governance of the treaty = forum to discuss exit from a temporary customs arrangement? (1)
ANOTHER reminder of what @MichelBarnier said about the UK-wide customs idea way back in July. Note the problems he said had to be solved to make it work. europa.eu/rapid/press-re… (2)
And finally, I've now seen FIVE different dates for an extra-special Brexit summit in November. But I've been told that my trip to the German Christmas markets on 1/2 December should be safe! (3
Read 3 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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Tánaiste Simon Coveney says “we cannot allow one party in Northern Ireland to veto #brexit proposals.” In reference to the DUP. He says DUP accept NI “isn’t Kent or a borough in London.”
.@simoncoveney tells @MarianRTE Sinn Féin’s call for a #borderpoll isn’t helpful and flames fear in unionists. Says Irish gov doesn’t want to threaten integrity of the UK
.@simoncoveney There is no question of a border in the Irish Sea. There must be some checks on goods traveling between two customs areas.
Read 11 tweets
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Reading and tweeting HMG's White Paper.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Starting with the conclusions (always the best bit)
1 Principled and practical are TM's new adjectves for #Brexit, which sounds conciliatory and is the sort of thing the EU do want to hear.
2
a Frictionless trade at the border (specific border not stated)
b UK out CAP & Fisheries, but in on crime & terror & shared prosperity fund
c No hard Border between NI & I, but protect the Union
d End of CJEU in UK, return "accountability" to the various elected assemblies
Read 59 tweets
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Brexit seems to have run completely into a wall. This will be a thread on how to leave the European Union.

It's written by someone who thinks the idea is ludicrous so before you attack me leavers, instead think how objective that makes me, and how honest I'll be on the issues.
There are a number of significant hurdles associated with leaving the EU so we'll move away from the politics and divide them into bite sized chunks that everyone can understand.

When we've done that we'll look at what we have at the end and decide how we approach it now.
There are some principles to establish. The thread won't indulge in revising history. When you're in a 40 year relationship, signing article 50 without a plan was clearly an act of extreme stupidity. But sign it we did. So we build from where we are now, not where we should be.
Read 110 tweets

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