We need to clear up a frequent misconception around the Brexit transition period...
Extending the Brexit transition period will NOT delay our departure from the EU. We still leave on 29 March 2019 at 11pm. After that, we're OUT of the EU. Brexit can no longer be stopped. 1/8
Extending the Brexit transition period will NOT delay our departure from the EU. We still leave on 29 March 2019 at 11pm. After that, we're OUT of the EU. Brexit can no longer be stopped. 1/8
During transition, even if might feel pretty much like we're still EU members (and maybe cost us the same as if we were), we AREN'T.
It's a vital distinction because it means there's a new "no deal" cliff edge waiting for us at the end of transition. 2/8
It's a vital distinction because it means there's a new "no deal" cliff edge waiting for us at the end of transition. 2/8
That's because we will have lost our 750+ treaties and trade agreements we enjoy as EU members (though their effects may be temporarily rolled into transition).
So those all have to be replaced to avoid us facing all the horrible no-deal consequences of Brexit. 3/8
So those all have to be replaced to avoid us facing all the horrible no-deal consequences of Brexit. 3/8
We have to renegotiate everything, both with the EU, and with non-EU countries where our current relationship depends on the fact we're EU members.
But we have zero leverage in the negotiations!
We can't threaten to walk away: we're already OUT. The deadline is firm. 4/8
But we have zero leverage in the negotiations!
We can't threaten to walk away: we're already OUT. The deadline is firm. 4/8
Think of the transition period like a VERY strong painkiller. You might not even feel it if one of your fingers is amputated. But that finger will still be gone, and when the painkiller wears off you'll KNOW! You also won't be able to stop it being cut off, because it's GONE. 5/8
So if the Brexit negotiations are still inconclusive, the prudent course of action (short of cancelling Brexit) is to extend Article 50. That pushes Brexit Day further into the future. Our negotiation position is unchanged, we just have more time to reach agreement. 6/8
For much, much more about Brexit, the no-deal scenario, Article 50, the transition period, trading on WTO terms and more, please see the thread below... 7/8
Or if you prefer a simple PDF to a very long tweet thread, this is a better bet (no graphics in the PDF version though, and you'll miss the hundreds of side-discussions). 8/8
