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Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Leaving on time is a very British-sounding threat. On a serious note, May told EU leaders this week she was committed to a legally operable backstop. 3 days later, ministers are undermining that commitment. This will add to concerns she can’t get a deal past cabinet & parliament
UK is leaving with or without a deal in March 2019. Transition only happens with a withdrawal deal. Aim of a longer transition, which would be EU27 concession given many wanted it to be as short as possible, would be to avoid a backstop being used, but doesn’t remove need for one
On how the backstop came to be, this by @tconnellyRTE, is an essential read rte.ie/news/brexit/20…
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Brexit. Things are getting worse.

1. The withdrawal agreement is needed regardless of the shape of the future relationship. The withdrawal agreement on the table, including the backstop, will not be renegotiated. EU27 cannot be clearer on this point – and this is the key point.
2. Throughout these negotiations, so many problems have been created by N10’s inability & unwillingness to set realistic expectations, explain tradeoffs and communicate clearly. As the PM runs out of road, the confusion over the withdrawal agreement is the latest example
3. The political declaration allows for a full spectrum of future options, but it is not clear what kind of relationship the UK wants. This will require a proper debate on tradeoffs (and years of negotiation). However, whatever that option: you need the withdrawal agreement
Read 7 tweets
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About last night:

1) May went to the meeting seeking legally-binded assurances with half-baked proposals to placate hard Brexiteers & DUP

These have been rejected repeatedly for obvious reasons. Backstop is an insurance policy not “a trap.” Not EU27 problem many MPs ignore this
2) May was asked by several leaders, and, I am told, most emphatically by Chancellor Merkel: 'what is it that you want?'

The prime minister was unable to provide an answer to this question with any precision.
That is where May is at in a nutshell: Nearly two years after triggering article 50, the UK does not have an answer to the question, "what do you want?"

There are also concerns that the UK – across the political spectrum – has no idea what kind of future relationship it wants.
Read 7 tweets
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EUCO draft Brexit conclusions: I understand that paragraph 5 (EU stands ready to examine whether any further assurances can be provided..) has gone.
Par. 1, which wasn't in square brackets, is of course unchanged: "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation."
Par 2 unchanged: EU reiterates wish for 'as close as possible partnership.." 'stands ready to embark on prep immediately after signature of WA to ensure negotiations can start asap after withdrawal'. Understand 27 discussed starting prep work on future deal as soon as UK ratifies
Read 12 tweets

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Where do Brexit talks stand with only 149 days to go - thread ⏰
2. Olly Robbins is back in Brussels meeting Sabine Weyand, but can over read significance of this. The pair are in constant contact. Lower-level meetings have taken place.
3. This gives rise to a very Brussels debate. Did the tunnel end last month with Dominic Raab’s visit? Or did the Brexit negotiators never really leave it

Consensus has settled on idea that British negotiators can leave Brussels, but stay in the tunnel.
Read 12 tweets
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For 850+ days, dear UK, you have either treated us EU citizens like garbage, or, on the whole, watched in silence as we have been treated like garbage. Today this culminated in @carolinenokes telling us that, if there is no deal, we will have to prove our right to work here. 1/
Prove it at a point when the vast majority of us will not be able to do so should it be necessary. Not only that, @carolinenokes: you even had the audacity to openly say that ‘this proves an enormous challenge’ for those of us EU citizens at home here. That is deplorable. 2/
Deplorable because it is a challenge that this govt created. Deliberately. If this happens then there will be discrimination, especially as this is likely to apply not only to the right to work, but also other rights, e.g. the right to rent; to hold a bank account etc. 3/
Read 12 tweets
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BREAKING: Taoiseach Leo Varadkar says that the British Prime Minister Theresa May shd table a new proposal on the future customs relationship between the EU & UK within the next 2 wks, hints it cd see continued alignment btwn whole of UK and EU on customs into the future
the Taoiseach said the prime minister had given him some insights into what he called “new thinking” on the British side.
Varadkar: I said to the prime minister that any move that helped to align all of the EU and the UK in terms of customs into the future would be beneficial.
Read 11 tweets
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There’s one positively enormous shoe that still hasn’t dropped in special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference with the 2016 campaign:
an indictment about all those hacked emails. vox.com/policy-and-pol…
The operation was more wide-ranging than many remember. It wasn’t just emails stolen, either — posted material ranged from Democratic Party turnout data a GOP operative thought was “probably worth millions of dollars” to even a purported picture of Michelle Obama’s passport.
Trump associates tried to get involved w either Russian-provided dirt, hacked Dem emails, or WL at least 6x. We don’t yet know if they were successful — but Papadopoulos has already pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about the matter, and began cooperating with Mueller’s team.
Read 59 tweets
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Critically ill Russian national is 66yo Sergei Skripal, former intel colonel/double agent granted refuge in UK after a 2010 "spy swap" between US & Russia. He and a woman were apparently poisoned in/near Salisbury shopping center. bbc.in/2D2oj7X
Ex-Russian spy & daughter 'poisoned' in UK sparks fears of another Kremlin-backed hit. Investigators scrambling to identify the chemical used. Skripal feared for his life after his wife died in a car crash & his son was killed in a road incident.. thesun.co.uk/news/5733372/s…
UK warns Kremlin over poisoning of ex-spy Skripal & his daughter. Recalling Litvinenko murder, FM Johnson said UK was "in the lead across the world" in trying to counteract a "host of malign activity" by Russia.

Skripal's brother, son & wife have been killed in the last 2 year.
Read 76 tweets
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The #EU decision to trigger "nuclear option" #article7 against Poland is extremely awkward for UK and bad news for a deeply divided EU leadership that lost its head when Macron got elected. A 1/thread

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/2…
First. The problem for Mrs May, both immediate and longer term.

1. The UK has invested huge amount of diplomatic capital in expanding UK-Polish relationship after #Brexit

German MEP on recent visit said Polish officials joking about sheer number of UK ministers who visited/2
They sent 150 Lightdragoons for Nato trip-wire, started Belvedere Forum and even deployed heavy weaponry (Wills n Kate) in the Summer.

Tomorrow May, Hammond and Boris all going. A PM, Fgn Sec and Chancellor in one hit. That's serious diplomatic love. /3
Read 16 tweets

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#DonaldTusk #DOOL #maddow #Hungary #France #backstop #HostileEnvironment #BigData #Ukraine #Democracy #Article7 #PeoplesVote #LoiseauUK #CambridgeAnalytica #CambridgeAnalyticaFiles #Rwanda #borderforcows #democracy #KerchBlockade #Brexit #Magnitsky #USVIA #Hindu #Russian #BrexitWhistleblower

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