Trump says protecting Americans is his top priority, yet left the Saudis off his mostly-Muslim travel ban—designed to keep, as he says, bad people from coming here to kill us. Never mind that 15 of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were Saudis
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And never mind that the Saudis, for years, have used their vast oil wealth to spread Wahhabism—its toxic, ultraconservative brand of Islam in schools, mosques and all the rest—which in turn has inspired Al Qaeda, ISIS and other Sunni terrorists
But don't think that failing to stand up to one of the world’s worst, most repressive regimes makes Trump unusual. For decades, American presidents have chosen to ignore, or at least downplay, Riyadh's brutal behavior because of broader, strategic concerns
Saudi Arabia serves as a regional counterweight to Iran, for instance. In this respect, the Saudis and Israel—normally the strangest of bedfellows—find common ground (Saudi and Israeli diplomats consult quietly and on a regular basis about the Iranian threat)
The Saudis also claim to be anti-ISIS, their quiet funding of Islamic extremism not withstanding. It's the mother of all contradictions. But the principal reason we have always looked the other way, of course, is oil
Since the end of WWII, Saudi crude has helped lubricate Western economies. But not always. After Arab nations launched a surprise attack on Israel in 1973, we came to Israel’s aid—and the Saudis and other oil exporters immediately hammered us with a crippling oil embargo
Prices quadruped, gas stations ran dry, and the U.S. economy fell into a steep recession. It was so bad that the Nixon administration considered invading Saudi Arabia to seize its oilfields. That’s how bad it was. For half a century, the Saudis have had us over a (oil) barrel
But that was then. Now, and beyond the view of most Americans, the royal family's power is waning. They are in trouble at home—and have growing reason to fear their own citizens. Remember the Arab Spring—the uprisings that swept across the Middle East a decade ago?
Numerous governments fell. It contributed to Syria’s ongoing civil war. But Saudi Arabia emerged unscathed, because its citizens didn’t revolt. There was little reason to. The royal family has long used its petro dollars to buy them off
Free healthcare. Free schooling. No income tax. Public pensions 90% of Saudis work for the government). Subsidized water, electricity and gasoline. Why would Saudis revolt? Against all those freebies?
The problem is that the money is running out. The Saudi economy shrank -0.7% last year, after rising just 1.7% the year before. If you think America’s budget deficit is a problem (3.9% of GDP last year and projected to hit 4.7% in FY 2019), consider Saudi Arabia’s 8.3%.
To soak up this red ink and curb iut deficit, the royal family has cut subsidies for water, electricity and gasoline and introduced a sales tax of 5%. Not surprisingly, this has angered many citizens, who fear the gravy train is ending.
Political oppression has always existed in Saudi Arabia, but everyone was always paid off. But now, the government is cutting back. The CIA estimates that 44% of the population is under the age of 24, and the unemployment rate for those aged 15-24 is a staggering 32.6%
That's a lot of young, disaffected, repressed, unemployed people sitting around.
In other words, conditions similar to the Arab Spring revolts of a decade ago now exist in Saudi Arabia itself. What might happen?
I think this helps explain why Jamal Khashoggi was murdered three weeks ago. The royal family is worried about unrest. It needs to keep a lid on things. That means crushing dissent, and apparently that means chopping up a provocative journalist with a bone saw.
After all, Khashoggi was a particularly harsh critic of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the now tarnished golden boy who dreamed of reforming the Saudi economy.
“Am I supposed to dislike them?” then-candidate Trump asked in 2015. Why shouldn't we? Conditions have changed; we don't need the Saudis like we used to. The fracking revolution and the boom in renewables over the past decade has brought us closer to energy independence
Plus, the #1 provider of what oil we do need to import comes from our friends in Canada. And yet Trump bashes Canada, while praising the Saudis - who produce terrorism and murder journalists? Perhaps Trump could learn that it is in America's best interest to do the opposite #