Thread by @MustStopMurad

1/ Just a thought experiment assuming this bear market plays out *exactly* like last time. Some believe it may last even *LONGER*.

2/ Arguments for "Same length or longer":
(a) It takes more time/PA to trend-exhaust a 100B asset v 5B asset
(b) BTC went 100x in 2yrs 15-17. Too fast wrt True Believers?
(c) Most people were d-facto BTC maximalists back then, right now more altcoiners
(d) Legacy mrkts crash (!?)

3/ Some Counterarguments:
(a) More "smart" ppl see this thing isnt DEAD fully, *yet again* / higher Lindy
(b) 2017 was a huge viral time / spotlight
(c) Much better infrastructure now than before++ / institutions warming up
(d) Prehalvening 'spark' speculation earlier&earlier

4/ Your view largely depends on which of these 'Yin' and 'Yang' sets of forces you place more respect / weight towards. It's a bit of a tug-of-war. Time will tell which of these camps turned out to be correct. h/t @wasthatawolf

5/ My somewhat "contrarian" view. Time lengths wise:

15% chance cycle gets *shorter*
35% chance it will be ~roughly same / halv spark ~Q4 2019 'breakout'
50% chance it'll be 1.2-1.3x longer.

None of this is investment advice.

For the love of Old Gods & the New, Do not @ me.

6/ An absolute worst case scenario (too much, even in my view)

Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

"The more you sweat in peacetime, the less you bleed in war." - Chinese Proverb.