Still misunderstanding on backstop in relation to deal. Thread:
1) An all-UK solution in withdrawal deal is hard for EU because withdrawal isn’t meant to deal with future r’ship. So while Brexiters treat all-UK customs union as concession by UK, was actually big concession by EU
1) An all-UK solution in withdrawal deal is hard for EU because withdrawal isn’t meant to deal with future r’ship. So while Brexiters treat all-UK customs union as concession by UK, was actually big concession by EU
2) Point is that customs union won’t resolve our future trade relationship. It’s a building block but it’s not enough for a trade deal. There’ll still be plenty to negotiate. But it is the essential first component
3) EU (and Ireland) need to know that whatever may happen in UK over next years and decades, there’ll always be an invisible land border in Ireland. That’s why backstop has to be NI-specific. And yes, that’s a problem for UK because NI must have soft Brexit in all circumstances
4) So this takes us back to crux of last December’s deal. UK must ensure backstop is never used, and only way it can do that is by guaranteeing that all-UK relationship will go above and beyond NI-specific solution in withdrawal deal. That means committing to full SM and full CU
5) Of course, this doesn’t bind future parliaments, which can decide to end our single market and customs union relationship. But they will do so knowing that NI will not follow in relation to the CU or SM in goods. That is a dilemma for future UK parliaments
6) The question for today’s gov is to reassure unionists that while there must be an NI-specific solution, gov will do its best never to activate it. Ultimately that means doing what gov still hasn’t: prioritising its red lines
7) If you want to sign tariff-based trade deals, you sign them without Northern Ireland. If you want to stop free movement of people, you increase checks on goods between GB and NI. If UK integrity more important than both goals, you keep EU tariffs and free movement of people
8) It’s now five minutes PAST midnight and gov has still not even begun to confront reality of its predicament. We can’t get what we want. Something must give. Hysteria following (woefully insufficient) 3-month transition idea highlights scale of delusion and false expectation
9) So it’s time to start disappointing people: fast. May must sign backstop and either tell NI she’ll build on it with soft Brexit or that NI and GB will be partially separated. If not, just accept none of this can work. And then take this crumbling mess back to the people.
