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Faisal Islam @faisalislam
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Going to Norway this week ... some surprising Brexit voices, who had previously described Norway option as betrayal, fake Brexit etc etc now sniffing around it as a staging post... one wonders if the push for another referendum is changing Commons dynamics telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Can’t see how the PM can pivot to this now having a month ago describing re EEA “That would make a mockery of the referendum we had two years ago.”
And there are some profound practical issues too... as top former EU lawyer explained: tho I suspect that this as a solution basically also requires fixed extension of Article 50, and prob a change at No 10/election maybe for EU to take seriously
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More from @faisalislam see all

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EU sources say there will be “no summit” and there are “no actual talks”, some discussions on reassurances. Another diplomatic source tells me even those will not come before the vote next week. /1
Still not entirely sure whether the Meaningful Vote debate that resumes tomorrow will be the continuation of the one curtailed last month or a new one. Former more likely. Would have to make special provision for previous speakers to speak again /2
Tory MPs who attended the Downing St drinks were expecting a bit of a rousing unity speech from PM - surprised there wasn’t one at all even “none of you will be back here” type cajoling. On the way out none I spoke to had changed mind.
Read 4 tweets
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22 Tory MPs including PPSs, trade envoys, grandees among 209 MPs signing joint cross party letter from Caroline Spelman/Jack Dromey “must not crash out of EU without a deal. We urge the Government to agree a mechanism that would ensure a ‘No Deal’ Brexit could not take place”
... Tory 22 include Spelman, Boles, Soames, Letwin, Vaizey, Keegan, ex Trade Minister Garnier, Trade Envoy R Graham... more than enough rebels to win vote. As opposing No Deal is manifesto policy of Labour, LDs, Plaid, SNP and Greens it seems highly likely there’s a Commons maj..
At this stage the 209 MPs are
162 Labour,
22 Tory,
18 SNP,
5 Lib Dem
and 4 Plaid.

“we had to send a clear message tomorrow before a fortnight of key debates commencing on Tuesday with the Finance Bill” said one signatory.
Read 7 tweets
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Ramsgate port approach now being dredged (NB by a Dutch dredger) in preparation for the potential taxpayer-funded ferry service to Ostend as a part alternative to anticipated No Deal Brexit blockages on the main Dover-Calais / Channel Tunnel routes
Meanwhile the first stages of “Operation Fennel” which we reported last month are now taking place - @TomBoadle has obtained this DfT letter about live testing Manston Airport Monday as another lorry park, in addition to 13 miles of M20 AND the M26 for No Deal Brexit disruption
Here is Operation Fennel - storing 10,000 cross channel lorries - the 5000 headed for Dover Port at Manston and 2000 For Eurotunnel on the M20 with a further 2000 on the M26 and then potentially stage 5 is for storage outside of Kent, if all that gets full...
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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1) Options available on #Brexit - thread
To try to help out with understanding I'm going to go for the simplest explanation I can of the options in front of the country re A50, Deals available etc based on my understanding

Here goes
2) briefly to begin with, there are 3 #Brexit options & 2 Article 50 options
Brexit options:
- No deal
- May's deal
- Remain

Article 50
- Revoke A50
- Delay A50

3 routes to Remain
- GE with a Labour Remain ticket
- 2nd Ref with a Remain option
- Revoke A50 via vote in HoP
3) Revoke A50
can be revoked by the UK alone, without agreement of the EU & we go back to the *exact* same deal we have now (rebate, no Euro etc)

However it must be a revoke in "good faith", we revoke because we are staying indefinitely, not as a pause whilst we have a rethink
Read 22 tweets
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X : Being a quitter, do you ever listen to the concerns of those who wish to remain?
Me : I listen to many opposing views from @acgrayling to @williamheath to @mikebutcher to ... a long list. The views belong to sensible people, often friends and including family.
X : I don't get why you support brexit?
Me : My reasons are around democracy and sovereignty.
X : Why are you against a people vote then?
Me : I was against holding the first referendum. I'm certainly not in favour of a re-run.
X : You know you're on the wrong side of history.
Me : In your view, not mine. That history has yet to be written. I do not know who is right or wrong.
X : I can't agree with you. I'm going to have to unfollow.
Me : That's your choice, not mine. I will still follow you.
Read 7 tweets
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1. There's a subtle shift in tone from the ultras this morning who are now pushing for a Canada+ agreement. That + is going to have to do a lot of work because we'd still be subject to third country controls thus having a similarly damaging effect to no deal #Brexit.
2. Again the Brexiters are ducking the issue that to have frictionless trade you need full regulatory harmonisation. If we don't have that then Mrs May will have to sign the NI backstop. Chequers is an attempt to fudge this question but it is at least a nod to reality.
3. Mrs May has attempted to bridge the unbridgeable divide. Chequers is an attempt at regulatory alignment while maintaining a level of regulatory sovereignty - which is tolerable but not to the EU. They won't go for it.
Read 16 tweets
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THREAD:

1. So who do I mean when I refer to the "Brexit Blob"? There's the usual suspects. Redwood, Rees-Mogg, Paterson and the other nonentity backbenchers, and then there;s the Tufton Street sock puppet think tanks and then the ayatollahs of #Brexit.
2. These will be people like Lawson, Ruth Lea, Hartley Brewer, Brendan O'Neill, John Longwoth, Kate Hoey, Gisela Stuart Low Fact Chloe, John Mills and so on and so forth. The ones who aren't lying are stone stupid.
3. These are the people who colluded to ensure that novbody outside the Westminster bubble got a voice in the campaign. That is why The Leave Alliance has struggled to win any exposure. Partly thanks to Hannan's sabotage early on - aided by the Bruges Group.
Read 25 tweets
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1) thread on the "missing anti-brexit surge"
It's fair to say that there is only a small (though significant) movement towards "remain" & against #Brexit, leading some to say that a #PeoplesVote might lead to the same result
But let's look at where we are

prospectmagazine.co.uk//blogs/peter-k…
2) the press is still largely pro #Brexit. The BBC has, in the name of balance, been at best hopeless in holding brexiters to account for previous statements and more importantly, both major parties are still pretending their Brexit will be OK
There's no major voice against it
3) and yet, despite the lack of any major voice exposing the reality of #Brexit, the message is still getting through about what a screw up Brexit really is.

There's consistent polls showing a majority who think Brexit is going badly, and a lack of faith in government handling
Read 18 tweets
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1. So the Norway option is back in the game. It's the one #Brexit approach that can work without a body blow to the economy. It's the only real way to avoid a cliff edge. Without it we will probably see an implosion of regulatory systems and this will simply stop working.
2. Typically any mention of the EEA sends the ultra Brexit loons into a tailspin. They have a crib sheet of counter arguments all of which are based on the most superficial analysis and do not stand up to scrutiny. So here is an unvarnished look at it...
3. Firstly we deal with the assertion we would be a rule take. Firstly, everybody is a rule taker - including the EU. Nobody makes all their own laws. Many based on international conventions and global standards. It is inevitable that we will adopt some EU rules.
Read 25 tweets

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