I haven't blogged for a while, for a variety of reasons. I will start again, but in the meantime, here's a tweetstorm of what I have been thinking about.
The internet analogies relating to the blockchain’s evolution are more striking than you would think. As with the web in 2000, many promoters and speculators have taken over the blockchain space already, and their noise is obscuring the more significant work that is going on.
How many blockchains do we really need? Blockchain implementations are different than blockchains. While we will have a finite number of blockchains (think infrastructure), there will be an infinite number of blockchain applications.
The blockchain tech side is not working as well as it should be with the business side of the equation. Technical innovation, proficiency and delivery are not enough for market success, user adoption and loyalty.
There will be a lot of throwaway blockchain technology. Too many overlapping, uncoordinated and perhaps useless technologies are being built today. I’m not sure there is a market for 10 protocols that do the same thing.
In the web world, 10 million+ Java and Web developers are producing the millions of Web Apps. We need to lure many more mainstream developers into the blockchain in order to see a quality and variety output increase in blockchain apps.
The state of middleware in blockchain is dismal. It’s bad. It’s awful. It’s stagnant. Having a common middleware layer that mainstream developers can chew on will help us leapfrog advancements in the blockchain space.
Ethereum’s momentum and lead are real and distance other ecosystems by orders of magnitude, but even that sheer momentum cannot on its own pull the industry forward. I’d like to see the Ethereum ecosystem continue to extend itself into others.
Proof of work was the genesis of blockchain technology. Computers were rewarded for validating transactions. Now, we need to move that model to humans: proof of human work is the next underrated blockchain application.
There are hidden risks behind native stablecoins. What are they? Can the native stablecoin creators reveal them? We already have stable currencies, but they were not programmable, therefore I favor fiat-pegged cryptocurrencies that are programmable. They are stable by default.
I’m mildly bearish on the innovation potential of blockchain applications in B2B. There, look for process improvements or cost reductions, before innovation. Private blockchains need a critical mass of usage too.
If you have a token model, being in a crypto-friendly jurisdiction is not enough. It lets you start, but doesn’t guarantee success. Companies must be committed to finding a token-to-market fit, after the token sale. I’m not seeing a lot of iterative work to get there.
There are many tokens whose market value is less than the amount originally raised. What are the reasons, implications and prognosis for these cases? Can their creators be transparent and communicate what is really going on?
Whereas transparency should have increased in post-token crowdsales, it has actually become worse. Some projects are confusing activities that money allows to undertake with actual results to be accountable for, obfuscating real signs of progress.
What should we measure that matters in the blockchain? I believe a new set of metrics will develop, and some will not all be the same as web metrics.
Need to revisit marketing communications for blockchain startups. Many blockchain companies are forgetting the art of the narrative to gain market awareness. User virality is not enough. Marketing doesn’t equal promotion or shouting on social media or YouTube.
The financial cryptomarkets can’t tell a good story from a bad one. Good news that strengthen the fundamentals of the blockchain aren’t moving the financial markets because we have overshot promises. Many sold assumptions need to be proven before we return to normality.
Don’t have to over-complicate blockchain implementations. Are we trying to make the blockchain do too much? It doesn’t replace a database, decision-making, storage or computing. Let’s scale the basics before we scale everything else based on unproven assumptions.
The concept of “peer-to-peer” is arguably the most fundamental aspect of the blockchain. P2P encapsulates: new protocols, apps, technologies, governance layers, money, digital value...all revolve around P2P when implemented. Let’s stay focused on that.
Finally,- To what extent does the blockchain world need to exist on its own versus influencing the world we live in, or creating new linkages to it? A fundamental question whose answers will only unravel over time. /end
