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Tren Griffin @trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
A basic task in a market analysis is reconciling bottom up claims (e.g, a few anecdotes) with a top down analysis, which this article fails to do. Falcon Heavy might get some US gov business ≠ zero top down constraint. qz.com/1439557/spacex… US gov demand is top down limited.
Blue Origin and SpaceX believe that demand for sending objects to space on rockets will increase as price drops. One such class of object is humans. But if, for example, a Falcon Heavy costs between $90M and $130M per launch it must deliver enough value to support that.
Mechanical Dirk suggests that I make clear that the number of spacecraft launched is greater than the number of launches which is much smaller, since objects launched are getting smaller. Demand for launch isn't growing. spacelaunchreport.com/log2017.html
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"According to the survey results, the median pay for full-time writers was $20,300 in 2017, and that number decreased to $6,080 when part-time writers were considered. The latter figure reflects a 42 percent drop since 2009, when the median was $10,500."
In my blog post on writing books I wrote: "6. Don’t expect to earn more than the minimum wage and be thrilled if you earn more." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
"In Mémoires (1759), Voltaire recalled how in his youth he had come across so many writers who were “penniless and held in contempt” that “he had decided not to add to their number.” laphamsquarterly.org/luck/voltaires… "Thanks to his fortune he was free to pursue his writerly life."
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"Companies can lose a lot of money in their early years but be wonderful businesses if they are acquiring customers with long lives and strong variable margins."

But some businesses just do the losing money part. A critical skill is knowing the difference between the two types.
Customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV) = valuing a business on a "bottoms up" basis by valuing the customers. In a subscription business especially, this is an essential process if you want to understand if real value is being created despite a lack of current GAAP earnings.
"CBCV isn’t about being profitable from day one. It’s about variable profitability in net present value terms (while still being mindful of fixed cost overhead of course!)" Determining whether a specific business is a delicious cheesecake or a turd requires detective work.
Read 6 tweets
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“The Fasten Seat Belt sign is now illuminated. If you haven’t already done so, please check your cash and cash equivalent balances. Please lower your burn rate and make sure your defensive investments are in their full upright position.”
“If you find yourself needing an emergency exit from illiquid investments, please read carefully the special instructions card. Cash is more king than ever. If you can’t handle the haircut you are about to experience, please ask someone to do the selling to raise cash for you.”
“We remind you this remains an uncertain and no sympathy correction. No one knows anything for sure as is usual. Crying and whining is prohibited, including in the lavatories. Tampering with, disabling or destroying your brokerage statements is pointless and prohibited by law.”
Read 5 tweets

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Merry Christmas everyone.

Powerful synthesis of the evidence thus far on #Guccifer2 from @with_integrity:

Guccifer 2.0 Game Over – Year End Review

disobedientmedia.com/2018/12/guccif…
A Christmas present that everyone who appreciates the truth will thoroughly enjoy.

disobedientmedia.com/2018/12/guccif…
Discussing the #Forensicator's first analysis of #NGPVAN:

"That study has been the subject of some controversy, although mostly built on conflating the findings with various interpretations of them, and with reporting on the study conducted by third parties."
Read 35 tweets
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1. Thread. This is a topic that I, @hugoreasoning and Melissa Schwartzberg are working on, in a project we are calling "No Bullshit Democracy." Short version - the libertarian critique of democracy rests on very shaky ground.
2. There _is_ plenty of evidence that voters tend often to be relatively poorly informed, and often subject to a wide variety of cognitive biases. See passim Achen and Bartels (who present a 'realist' account of democracy, but are notably not anti-democratic themselves).
3. This presents an important challenge to people who are not profound skeptics of democracy - to figure out how _and_ when democracy still works, despite these problems. On these questions: more when we have finished writing (nb - blame me, not co-authors for these tweets).
Read 21 tweets
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PRINCIPLES TO UNDERSTAND OUR MIND:

1) Our mind is an ensemble of parallel, bottom-up processes. It cannot be described as a single top-down process, even if this is how we perceive it.

2) Our mind is not made to perceive correctly, but to act correctly.
(Corollary to #2: perception biases are features, not bugs.)

3) Perception is proactive. We choose what to sense in order to facilitate action.

(Corollary to #3: one can’t build an *effective* mind whose only job is to perceive. This is a limit of many current AI approaches.)
4) Our brain is specialized, not modular, just like our cells are specialized *in their outputs* but their inputs are general (they get info about the general state of the body) and could not live as separate modules.
Read 17 tweets
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#Khashoggi Case Thread: I am going to ‘pin’ this post to use it as an ‘Info Thread’ on the #Khashoggi Case. I am in #Turkey. I’ve been following the case closely and with access to sources & experts here. This is a very ‘sensitive’ criminal case due to ‘Diplomatic Booby Traps’!!!
The Evidence Obtained Outside Cameras will not show any evidence of ‘tempering’ but other than license plates of dozens of diplomatic cars (Many with tinted windows-large trunks) with related time stamp, drivers Info, model/year: Nothing.
#Turkish Intel-Investigative Bodies also have the list of all Diplomatic & Private Saudi & “other significant’ Planes in #Turkey for the period of ‘interest.’ Many of the Target airports have their own security cameras & related evidence.
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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No. Since Switzerland wasn't entirely built from the bottom up. Considering e.g. mainly its modern form/content and its key feature neutrality were given and guaranteed by the Congress of Vienna 1815.
The new Constitutional order was imposed by war 1847 and then by political decision on the losing "original cantons" (cf. the votes: bk.admin.ch/ch/f/pore/va/1…) – despite the fact that unanimity would have been necessary to change the Federal Treaty of 1815.
Fun fact: So the "original cantons" such as my home canton Nidwalden have been and still are rejecting every new Federal Constitution since then (also 1874 & 1999). Cf. for the Constitution now in force: bk.admin.ch/ch/f/pore/va/1….

So it's rather not entirely bottom up... 😉
Read 3 tweets

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