More accurate than Premium times. Someone needs to fact-check the fact-checker too though. Will do a thread later this evening.
So the question is, did the total debt increase by $9,401,490,000 (or $10 Billion if you want to over-roundup😁) between May 2015 and June 2018 as claimed by the VP? On the face of it, it appears so but the answer is NO!
Okay, did the total debt increase by N10.3 Trillion during the same period? The answer also is NO! So how much did Nigeria borrow during the referenced period?
Two things should be considered in arriving at closest answer to this debt puzzle. These are exchange rates (revaluation) and principal repayments. The difference in the analysis above has subsumed these two giants and what you are seeing is a net figure.
It is important to note that the rate used in June 2015 report was N196.95 to $1 and the rate for the June 2018 report was N305.70 to $1. This means that in arriving at the Naira value of the external debt in 2015, N196.95 was used and 305.7 in June 2018.
It is also important to disaggregate the External debt from the Domestic debt. Muddling them together won't give a true picture. So let's start with the External Debt
Using the actual rates as at 30 June 2015 and 30 June 2018, I came up with the table below. You will note that additional loan during the period is $12.18 Billion (N3.63 Trillion). We should keep this figure somewhere. 
Domestic debt is straight forward because there in no need to adjust for exchange rate differences, only principal repayment will be taken into consideration.
The information available on principal repayment on DMO website is only on Treasury bonds.
The information available on principal repayment on DMO website is only on Treasury bonds.
From this analysis, the FG and the states borrowed additional N5.62 Trillion.
Additional External loan: $12.18 Billion
Additional Domestic Loan: N5.62 Trillion.
This is why it is extremely wrong to say that the total loan boom has only increased by $10 Billion which will translate to only N3.05 Trillion.
Additional Domestic Loan: N5.62 Trillion.
This is why it is extremely wrong to say that the total loan boom has only increased by $10 Billion which will translate to only N3.05 Trillion.
By my own calculation (which should be challenged), Nigeria's loan book has increased by N9.2 Trillion or $30.6 Billion.
Unroll @threadreaderapp
