Let's do a little thought experiment in light of this tweet from @robfordmancs:
This builds on my earlier thread:
1/8
This builds on my earlier thread:
1/8
Prerequisites for this:
- someone ousts May in a Tory leadership election in Sept/Oct
- Govt majority lost, meaning a new GE in Oct/Nov 2018
(both of these are of course open to question - but bear with me!)
2/8
- someone ousts May in a Tory leadership election in Sept/Oct
- Govt majority lost, meaning a new GE in Oct/Nov 2018
(both of these are of course open to question - but bear with me!)
2/8
How do the Tories and Labour approach #Brexit in such a General Election campaign?
One presumes that the Tories (with 75% of their membership pro-Brexit) aim for a hard Brexit, something akin to the Chequers deal (or harder). They'd NOT want a #peoplesvote
3/8
One presumes that the Tories (with 75% of their membership pro-Brexit) aim for a hard Brexit, something akin to the Chequers deal (or harder). They'd NOT want a #peoplesvote
3/8
How would Labour then respond?
We know of Corbyn's EU-scepticism. We know the Caroline Flint line that Labour constituencies voted Brexit.
*But* we likewise know that a maj of Labour voters voted Remain, and even Momentum is starting to think about calling for a 2nd ref
4/8
We know of Corbyn's EU-scepticism. We know the Caroline Flint line that Labour constituencies voted Brexit.
*But* we likewise know that a maj of Labour voters voted Remain, and even Momentum is starting to think about calling for a 2nd ref
4/8
So how would a Labour manifesto look?
It is not going to advocate Remain. But nor is it going to advocate a Brexit as hard as the Tories would want.
And what better way to avoid the splits in the party... than by supporting a #peoplesvote?
5/8
It is not going to advocate Remain. But nor is it going to advocate a Brexit as hard as the Tories would want.
And what better way to avoid the splits in the party... than by supporting a #peoplesvote?
5/8
There are even pro-Brexit people who have no problem with a further referendum, and trying to argue *against* such a 2nd vote is going to be tricky.
Plus remember Blair & referendums in 🏴 & 🏴 - designed precisely to avoid a debate in the 1997 GE
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Plus remember Blair & referendums in 🏴 & 🏴 - designed precisely to avoid a debate in the 1997 GE
6/8
Faced with Labour looking they were "on the side of democracy" (I hate that argument, but can see newspapers using it), and the Tories not being, either Labour makes the running on this issue. Or the Tories have to cave to hold such a vote too.
7/8
7/8
Viable?
Or all too pie in the sky?
8/8
Or all too pie in the sky?
8/8
