Fittingly this election day, I’ll be continuing my coverage of the #2020Census trial.
Only sporadic tweeting of the proceedings today, but I’ll send out updates worth your time and attention.
ICYMI: My recap from Day One. courthousenews.com/scholar-warns-…
Only sporadic tweeting of the proceedings today, but I’ll send out updates worth your time and attention.
ICYMI: My recap from Day One. courthousenews.com/scholar-warns-…
After voting early this morning, I've been sitting in court listening to testimony by NYC's chief demographer Joe Salvo - giving a granular overview about how city governments use census data and assist in its collection.
Some thoughts on that (ongoing) testimony.
Some thoughts on that (ongoing) testimony.
Salvo's worked on four decennial census surveys and served on the National Academy of Science's Committee of National Statistics (CN-Stat).
A model public servant, Salvo speaks passionately about data-collection, conversant in government acronyms, but always human.
A model public servant, Salvo speaks passionately about data-collection, conversant in government acronyms, but always human.
The picture of a guy who - with the caveat that cross-examination has not yet begun - gives bureaucracy a good name.
Now for his testimony.
Now for his testimony.
Salvo said that he agreed with Census Bureau's chief scientist on the major point.
"The citizenship question is likely to compromise self-response. I think that is pretty much agreed upon by all parties."
The response will be "manufactured" to "compromise accuracy," he says.
"The citizenship question is likely to compromise self-response. I think that is pretty much agreed upon by all parties."
The response will be "manufactured" to "compromise accuracy," he says.
Giving practical examples of city services an undercount would compromise in NYC, Salvo pointed to:
* Language services
* Health Department (e.g. charting disease outbreak)
The 2010 census showed a huge spike in vacant units in Astoria and south Brooklyn. Ridiculous, he noted.
* Language services
* Health Department (e.g. charting disease outbreak)
The 2010 census showed a huge spike in vacant units in Astoria and south Brooklyn. Ridiculous, he noted.
The Health Department had Salvo adjust the numbers to provide disease estimates, he said.
"We had to on our own adjust the data," he said.
He also gave a granular look on outreach efforts known as NRFU (non-response follow-up operations), and why this leads to underestimates.
"We had to on our own adjust the data," he said.
He also gave a granular look on outreach efforts known as NRFU (non-response follow-up operations), and why this leads to underestimates.
Underreported facts:
1) On top of the citizenship question, Census Bureau budget cuts provoked an increasing reliance on administrative records to learn whether units are vacant.
In Los Angeles and Harris County, TX, Salvo said, 20% of units marked vacant actually occupied.
1) On top of the citizenship question, Census Bureau budget cuts provoked an increasing reliance on administrative records to learn whether units are vacant.
In Los Angeles and Harris County, TX, Salvo said, 20% of units marked vacant actually occupied.
2) In the past, Census Bureau sought waivers to hire noncitizens as "enumerators" - the workers who follow-up on nonresponsive households - because they have language and cultural skills.
As @HansiLoWang notes here, WaPo reported a ban on that practice.
As @HansiLoWang notes here, WaPo reported a ban on that practice.
Here's why Salvo says the focus on admin records rather than people threatens the count:
"It's on the ground. You've gotta go, and you gotta look," Salvo said in a New York twang. "We go full-tilt."
Salvo's taken the court on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood tour.
"It's on the ground. You've gotta go, and you gotta look," Salvo said in a New York twang. "We go full-tilt."
Salvo's taken the court on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood tour.
Example: Salvo noted that the 46% increase in vacant housing reported by the 2010 census included Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights, Bensonhurst, Astoria and others.
"These are not neighborhoods that are experiencing any sort of abandonment," he noted.
"This reeks of a bad map."
"These are not neighborhoods that are experiencing any sort of abandonment," he noted.
"This reeks of a bad map."
Salvo and a co-author critiqued this in a study titled "Misclassifying New York's Hidden Units as Vacant"in the peer-reviewed publication "Population," displayed in court.
If you're a New Yorker viewing the map, the image is all the more striking. link.springer.com/article/10.100…
If you're a New Yorker viewing the map, the image is all the more striking. link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Another problem, Salvo says: There is a greater reliance on using landlords as a proxy, and they are more likely to undercount to disguise "overoccupied situations" or "building code" issues.
Here's where the citizenship question comes in: Enumerators build trust with the people directly over up to six visits.
"We are the City of New York," Salvo said. "We've got your back. We're goign to help you stand up for who you are."
"We are the City of New York," Salvo said. "We've got your back. We're goign to help you stand up for who you are."
Again and again during Salvo's testimony, he has spoken of his "fear" of what a bad count would mean for city services, including health care, education and even the distribution of Yellow Pages. His emotion comes across as wholly sincere.
He is animated on the witness stand.
He is animated on the witness stand.
(Comment: This is what I mean by Salvo's testimony showing the best of what is often pejoratively labeled bureaucracy: expertise, community engagement and labor that meaningfully improves people's lives through mundane, unsung and vital functioning of government.)
An in-the-weeds aside:
One of the lawsuit's allegations is the Commerce Dept. instituted the citizenship q- in a way that violates the Administrative Procedures Act, which protects against "arbitrary + capricious" govt actions.
Essentially, a defense of bureaucratic red tape.
One of the lawsuit's allegations is the Commerce Dept. instituted the citizenship q- in a way that violates the Administrative Procedures Act, which protects against "arbitrary + capricious" govt actions.
Essentially, a defense of bureaucratic red tape.
In our era, bureaucratic red tape gets a bad rap, but it's what stops politicians - for example - from cynically ordering a sea change in policy for their own private gain.
That's the central allegation at the heart of this lawsuit
That's the central allegation at the heart of this lawsuit
Basic census facts:
* The Constitution mandates counting of all residents, not citizens.
* Not even the govt alleges noncitizens shouldn't be counted.
* It affects apportionment of political power and funding, but also basic govt functions and social services.
* The Constitution mandates counting of all residents, not citizens.
* Not even the govt alleges noncitizens shouldn't be counted.
* It affects apportionment of political power and funding, but also basic govt functions and social services.
This is why the citizenship question challengers allege that the Commerce Dept and Wilbur Ross created a pretext of Voting Rights Act enforcement to change the survey.
This may be widely known by my readers, but it's often assumed to be known than stated outright in reporting.
This may be widely known by my readers, but it's often assumed to be known than stated outright in reporting.
Regardless on your views on immigration, for example, everyone presumably wants the government to accurately be able to create epidemiological maps.
This is one reason why the census shouldn't be politicized, the central accusation in this case.
This is one reason why the census shouldn't be politicized, the central accusation in this case.
Forgive the lengthy aside: It seems that Census 101 falls by the wayside and the basic facts tend to be assumed rather than explained in the reporting, and I wanted to clarify what this case is and isn't about.
Lunch break. Will return to witness testimony in an hour.
Lunch break. Will return to witness testimony in an hour.
Back to the trial with Salvo's cross-ex:
The DOJ attorney suggests that the Census Bureau might ask Congress for permission to hire non-citizen enumerators.
"That would be great," Salvo replies.
(Salvo cited the reported ban on non-citizen enumerators as a challenge earlier.)
The DOJ attorney suggests that the Census Bureau might ask Congress for permission to hire non-citizen enumerators.
"That would be great," Salvo replies.
(Salvo cited the reported ban on non-citizen enumerators as a challenge earlier.)
(Scroll up the thread for context on that last tweet.)
Furman interjected that Salvo doesn't know one way or another that the Bureau is in fact seeking that permission.
Salvo agrees.
Furman interjected that Salvo doesn't know one way or another that the Bureau is in fact seeking that permission.
Salvo agrees.
Salvo's testimony is completed.
Next witness: Dr. Hermann Habermann, whose bio is here. napawash.org/fellows/our-fe…
Next witness: Dr. Hermann Habermann, whose bio is here. napawash.org/fellows/our-fe…
“Statistics are trusted when the agencies that produce the data are seen as making decisions based on professional not political considerations,” a quote from Dr. Habermann's report read to him at trial today.
My @CourthouseNews recap of Day 2: courthousenews.com/top-nyc-demogr…
My @CourthouseNews recap of Day 2: courthousenews.com/top-nyc-demogr…
