Thread by @MaxMigliorato

Labour FB Brexit policy is ensuring a Tory comeback

There is no other way of putting this. Labour might well win the next election, but a Brexit Britain will hand the reigns of power back to the Conservative party within a one parliament

Here is why.

Brexit is a loss to the treasury and public finances irrespective on any deal we might agree with the EU.
Gayle and Gardiner even agreed in this on the Ch4 special on Monday 5th November.

Both felt compelled to go ahead with it because people voted for it.

For both Conservatives and Labour whether people realized they were voting for a less wealthy future is irrelevant to their respective policies.

While ideologically the Conservatives have always been there, Labour own Eurosceptisism was often a minority opinion.

But now that minority opinion is now embedded in the front bench.
And so Brexit will happen as the front bench has developed this I'll advices plan, against the wishes of its membership, to try an turn a disastrous Tory Brexit into a golden dawn of a socialist Lexit.

Unbound by the EU capitalist rules A socialist UK could transform the economy, nationalize the hell out of services, and adopt fiscal policies that will redistribute wealth like never before.

At least this is what some Lexiters think.

In practice, the world economy has more stringent rules than the EU ones, and to be part of the world economy you have to be compatible with the capitalist system now adopted by everyone else apart from Venezuela. And we really do not want to become Europe's Venezuela.

McDonnel might speak like a Marxist for effect, but he is smart and pragmatic. He knows what is possible and was it is not.

But on Brexit he is miscalculating.
Both politically and economically.

Politically he is banking on shifting the political discourse from Brexit austerity. What he calls uniting the country. This might have worked in 2017, it will not work with less than 100 working days to Brexit.

In fact, one only needs to check social media to see how all attempts at distraction from Brexit are received with derision and anger by remainers.

Economically, it is problaby the biggest mistake.
For Labour policies to work, the public finances need a fresh cash injection of around £125 billion a year. This is even before contemplating additional borrowing.
That is roughly ten time the EU membership by the way

The extra would go into NHS, Schools, Universal credit budget, extra police etc.
This is not going to directly improve the economy. But at least would make living standards tolerable for many.

With UK GDP currently at £2.5 trillion, an additional £125 billion in taxes means a hike on average of by 5%.
This is a huge shift in fiscal policy. One that even McDonnel knows is impossible. Some of his more radical supporters think this will come from corporations alone.

But then tax increases required would simply make the UK not suitable for foreign investment and business.

Brexit will not make things easier. In fact a reduction of GDP anything from 2% to 8% for at least 15 years, will mean having to find £150 to £250 billion instead.

The truth is that under Brexit, Labour would not be able to roll out their manifesto, without committing economic suicide.
They would be trapped between crippling the finances or disappointing their electorate.

What would happen then?
The Tories would simply get back in.
No ifs no buts.
Labour would take all the blame for Brexit's economic disaster, like they did for the 2009 financial crisis.
Any Corbynomics experiment would be very short lived.

The only way to give this country a long lasting Labour Government is to stop Brexit now before it is too late and the economy is already crippled beyond repair by factories closing and jobs vanishing.

GAWKE not Gayle