Thread by @sbmintelligence

In a week where Nigeria’s government outmanoeuvred trade unions but inevitably booted the ball up the pitch, questions still arose about its budget.

Meanwhile, security dominates the discussions next door, amid concerns that Nigeria may be inadvertently breeding a militia.

On the minimum wage palaver, the key point to note is that @AsoRock has been unable to fund salary payments at the ₦18,000/month level from its revenues, and most states need to be bailed out periodically at that amount.

An analysis by @BusinessDayNg projected that an acceptance of ₦30,000 minimum wage (a 66% rise) by @MBuhari will cost @AsoRock an additional ₦1.25 trillion annually, a move which renders the proposed #budget2019 obsolete, and plunges #Nigeria deeper into the debt conundrum.

Given wildly varying costs of living, the minimum wage should be determined at sub-national levels. Each state should compete for talent and pay what they can afford.

A second view is the divergence of remuneration from actual cost of living in #Nigeria.

Even at ₦30,000 ($83.33) per month, the wages for the Nigerian worker still hover around the poverty line.

Then there is the issue of negotiations.

This would have been a perfect opportunity to negotiate a removal of petrol subsidies in exchange for a minimum wage rise, but clearly @AsoRock was unwilling because of potential political consequences so close to #NigeriaDecides2019.

Through a sleight of hand, @AsoRock has kicked the issue up the pitch, but it remains to be seen how far the ball went.

At some point #Nigeria will have to stop procrastinating and face up to the real issues.

Of all the numbers in the #MTEF, the only one that is reflective of reality is the price of oil, a factor outside of the control of @AsoRock.

Every other item, well within the FG's control like daily production, exchange rate, inflation & GDP growth, are divorced from reality.

This #MTEF is, once again, proof that our budgeting process isn't grounded in reality.

The revenue performance over the last 3 years indicates how this will turnout - a huge budget which will inevitably underperform, with the only real hope being an upswing in crude oil prices.

It is perhaps saddest that, at this point in #Nigeria's development, we are still dependent on unpredictable and uncontrollable oil prices to this degree.

Concerns have been raised in the past about the propriety of implicitly positioning #CJTF as a pathway to @HQNigerianArmy and other armed services.

The latest round of recruitments is certain to resurrect such concerns.

Apart from potential violation of Section 217 of #CFRN1999, “the composition of the officer corps and the other ranks of the armed forces of the federation shall reflect the federal character of Nigeria,” there are concerns as to the extent of the due diligence conducted here.

#CJTF members have in the past been accused of violent crimes ranging from armed robbery to murder to intimidation and sexual assault.

There are doubts regarding how fastidious @DefenceInfoNG has been in sifting out criminal elements in #CJTF.

Furthermore, the selection of a few members of #CJTF could create problems of reintegration and readjustment of the remaining irregular combatants if enlistment in @DefenceInfoNG is perceived as a reward for service among the vigilantes.

In a #BokoHaram post-conflict phase, the challenge of managing tens of thousands of #CJTF veterans will be compounded by a sense that only a few of them have been handsomely and adequately transitioned into @DefenceInfoNG.

This could create discontent and disillusionment among the rest of #CJTF, and therefore a threat to peace in the region.

As more parts of #Borno enter a post-conflict phase, on paper at least, the question of what to do with the CJTF will assume greater import.

Assuming the school kids' abduction was carried out by Anglophone Cameroonian rebels and was not a false flag operation by @PR_Paul_BIYA's agents or their proxies, it would represent yet another milestone in the escalation of the conflict that is threatening to sunder #Cameroun.

With both sides apparently unwilling to cease hostilities, there seems to be little room for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

@PR_Paul_BIYA's regime’s unwillingness to countenance the right of Anglophones to peaceful protest has created a sense of inevitability about war.

An all out insurgency in the anglophone regions of #Cameroun would impact #Nigeria, which is grappling with her own insurrectionary challenge in the form of #BokoHaram.

It would also create a transnational zone of lawlessness traversing both countries.

This could potentially enable armed non-state actors in #Nigeria and #Cameroun to collaborate, or at the very least to interact in ways that strengthen their forces.

@PR_Paul_BIYA could offer some concessions on language rights to the dissidents as a show of good faith.

Such a show of good faith will help to de-escalate the tension.

But, the re-election of @PR_Paul_BIYA for a 7th term in office suggests that this is unlikely to happen.