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Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
UK amb. in Geneva @JulianUNWTO updates @CommonsIntTrade this morning on UK status in @wto. Includes an account of how he & DIT Chief Trade Negotiation Adviser Crawford Falconer met WTO Secretariat to discuss what would be needed. Also quotes @VangelisVNZ

goo.gl/rndzEH
1. He says: all going according to plan, starting with technical rectification & then to Art.28 negotiations on tariff quotas allows the UK to have a separate process from the EU's (I'm not sure that's right).

Art.28 will definitely go beyond next March

goo.gl/rndzEH
2. If UK stays in a customs union with the EU in transition, it can still use EU28 TRQs during the transition. Stresses UK wants to avoid disruption to anyone's trade.

A lot of discussion on the health the WTO

goo.gl/rndzEH
3. Some discussion of public services (NHS) — acceding to Government Procurement agreement (GPA) = no change in legal obligations, falling out means no obligations.

US wanting update is a "fair point"

Noticeable no mention of the services schedule

/end

goo.gl/rndzEH
Pity this didn't come up in the discussion of GPA

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Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 20 tweets
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The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Read 10 tweets
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This is nonsense.

No one does deals to "escape" the WTO. They remain WTO members, bound by the agreements they made in the WTO.

They get some better terms through free trade deals, but the WTO agreements remain the shell. Those free trade agreements reside within the WTO shell
One of the needs of Brexit (whatever the outcome) is to understand the implications for trade, including the WTO and its agreements.

It doesn't help if influential people like @mikegalsworthy & @Scientists4EU can't be bothered to find out what the WTO really is.

Pointers

1/3
Here's somewhere to start: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/12/17/wto…

2/3
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Don’t know which Europeans Mr. Hannan is speaking to but I haven’t met anyone in Brussels or in EU capitals who is unhappy with the Commission approach & I’ve spoken to a lot of them. #Brexit
In addition, no-one in the #EU is threatening the UK (I wld challenge Hannan to point to one threat that has come from a leading EU politician or negotiator), nor are they stopping the UK from leaving. #Brexit
The EU have been clear from the start that there are many trade models available to the UK & the UK have ruled most of them out. If it feels like the UK has little room for manoeuvre it is because the government painted itself into a corner. #Brexit
Read 17 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets
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Over the weekend, I have been fixated on trying to understand all that happened in 2014 as key to the current (2018) university pensions crisis #ucustrike #ussstrike. An earlier thread is attached below. #ucustrike #ussstrikes
When I'm not on strike, I usually research by piecing together published, archival & grey literatures to build up a rich tapestry through which to get a grip on shifting phenomena. How do 'objects' & phenomena gain consistency & tractability? How do they change in form?
So here are some of the things (official lit, grey literatures, weblinks, newspaper/magazine articles etc.) that are currently in my "What happened around pensions, USS & UUK in 2014?" folder #ucustrike #ussstrikes
Read 114 tweets
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Critically ill Russian national is 66yo Sergei Skripal, former intel colonel/double agent granted refuge in UK after a 2010 "spy swap" between US & Russia. He and a woman were apparently poisoned in/near Salisbury shopping center. bbc.in/2D2oj7X
Ex-Russian spy & daughter 'poisoned' in UK sparks fears of another Kremlin-backed hit. Investigators scrambling to identify the chemical used. Skripal feared for his life after his wife died in a car crash & his son was killed in a road incident.. thesun.co.uk/news/5733372/s…
UK warns Kremlin over poisoning of ex-spy Skripal & his daughter. Recalling Litvinenko murder, FM Johnson said UK was "in the lead across the world" in trying to counteract a "host of malign activity" by Russia.

Skripal's brother, son & wife have been killed in the last 2 year.
Read 76 tweets
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#London - Explosion reported @ #ParsonsGreen underground station.
#UK #London - No service btw Earls Court to Wimbledon. Buses, South Western and London Overground accepting tickets via any reasonable route
#UK #London - Explosion (in or of a bucket) reportedly happened near the rear of the train. (Pic Andy Webb)
Read 58 tweets

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