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katya adler @BBCkatyaadler
, 7 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
1) Brussels keeping stumm as regards a #brexit deal tonight
2) so what do we think we know? That a ‘mutual understanding’ has been reached on a technical level between EU and U.K. negotiators. This is not yet a deal
3) Earlier today European Commission Vice President Timmermans said progress has been made but negotiations are ongoing. This was backed up this eve by office of Irish FM and deputy PM
4) So what’s the choreography now on EU side? Brussels is watching for the U.K. cabinet tomorrow and Commission will then comment at midday
5) EU ambassadors of the 27 member states were always scheduled to meet tomorrow. But they meeting has been brought forward in expectation that they may be told that ‘decisive progress’ has been made in Brexit negotiations
6) If that is the case, then a Brexit summit could still be convened this month (date being discussed now is 25th Nov)
7) But this is pie in sky if cabinet trashes the EU-U.K. ‘understanding’ tomorrow. Even if the green light is given there, then the EU member states and European Parliament will want to pore over thevdetsils before taking any decisive steps
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More from @BBCkatyaadler see all

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1) EU watching to see if their #Brexit deal negotiated with the PM is defeated in parliament tomorrow and if so, by how much
2) EU leaders will invite Theresa May to tell them what’s going on in the U.K, what her next steps will be and what she hopes for from them at their scheduled EU summit on Weds and Thursday this week #Brexit
3) EU v much wants to avoid a no-deal scenario but EU leaders unlikely to provide even written clarifications on controversial #Brexit issues like the backstop to help the PM unless they get a pretty cast iron guarantee that will get the deal through Parliament in a second vote
Read 5 tweets
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Again, at such a key moment in UK and at such high political levels, evidence of deep misunderstanding of EU: The PM is under pressure in some quarters to delay #Brexit vote to allow her first to “improve” deal in Brussels BUT EU is determined not to budge at this stage
2) All EU leaders watching tomorrow’s vote. Of course they want to avoid a no deal #Brexit BUT they feel the deal - so painfully negotiated between EU and UK - is too fresh to re-open. Clarifications, yes but fundamental renegotiations, no.
3) The EU’s international reputation as a tough deal-maker is at stake here too. If Brussels now suddenly “gives in” to U.K. on EU red lines (eg backstop) then that would weaken the EU’s reputation in future trade negotiations with other non EU countries
Read 6 tweets
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1) ECJ has just ruled - as expected - that U.K. can unilaterally revoke article 50 - the process by which U.K. leaves the EU -as long as parliament agrees or a new U.K. gov is in favour (following a general election)
2) ECJ has ruled that if U.K. changes its mind about #Brexit before the official leaving date of 29 March 2019 then the U.K. would stay in EU under current conditions - ie with rebate, opt-outs from Euro currency etc
3) Remember this is an ECJ ruling. It goes against European Commission which said revoking article 50 shouldn’t be a unilateral action by a leaving member state (Brussels worries about setting precedent in case other countries might pretend to “leave” in order to get better deal)
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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I don‘t often disagree with Sam. Here I do. The TRQ negotiations at the WTO won’t be easy. What does that mean? What is happening? (Short thread)
1) Each WTO Member has schedules. These contain, among others, their tariff commitments. The U.K., as an EU member state, traded under the EU schedule. It now needs its own.
2) The EU will need a new schedule of the EU27. The U.K. thinks this exercise is a rectification, that the U.K. schedule can be determined as a technical exercise, separating it out of the EU one. The EU thinks this is a modification of the schedule, requiring negotiations.
Read 16 tweets
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#Brexit White Paper is finally out

Thread

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1. The full U.K. solution to the Irish border will be rejected by the EU
2. A ‘common rulebook for goods’ - the EU could do two things: A) reject as cherry-picking parts of the single market or B) start discussing how much of this is doable under an FTA.
There’s a good chance it would be B, but it will have to be tweaked significantly
Read 5 tweets
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In Ireland for a two day #brexit download.

Michel Barnier already trowelling it on a bit thick with the EU family stuff... no doubt the Greeks feel that warm glow; and Mr Macron as he does his Eurozone reboot. Nord Stream II anyone?
Barnier goes on to say that the EU has so far “not received any workable solutions” so is sticking to the backstop as drafted.

That’s a goods border in Irish Sea and turning Northern Ireland into a regulatory enclave of the EU. /2
U.K. sources clear this cannot fly.

We saw what happened in Dec. DUP went ballistic and Sturgeon piled in.

So what are solutions? /3
Read 7 tweets
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#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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