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Georgina Wright @GeorginaEWright
, 7 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
What happens if the UK Parliament rejects the government's withdrawal agreement? Very unclear but some options below (short thread):
1. Amendments: May goes back to Brussels and demands changes to the withdrawal agreement. Two problems: Will EU re-open negotiations? Will May have enough support at home for amendments? May cd also ask to extend article 50 (again, unclear how EU will react).
2. Second reading: Markets and business react badly to prospect of no deal. May presents ultimatum: it's my deal, no deal or no Brexit. Panic. Withdrawal agreement makes it through on second reading.
3. Second referendum: Momentum builds for another vote. But here too, there are problems: need legislation to hold another referendum. Not clear there is sufficient support in House of Commons (although odds growing).
4. No deal: UK heads and falls off the cliff. Figures out when it will next return to Brussels (because it will have to -- at some point).
5. Norway: Not clear that withdrawal agreement will make it through on second reading. Not enough MPs support second referendum. Fewer support no deal. MPs lobby for Norway option as short to medium-term option.
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