A few thoughts on May’s potential latest Brexit idea, if cabinet agrees:
Idea (perhaps) to essentially stay in EU single mkt for goods & agriculture, not for fisheries nor services. Leave CU but have a customs partnership almost mimicking CU but allowing own trade deals 1.
Idea (perhaps) to essentially stay in EU single mkt for goods & agriculture, not for fisheries nor services. Leave CU but have a customs partnership almost mimicking CU but allowing own trade deals 1.
Various problems:
Why wd EU agree to this without free movement of people? And why wd it agree to it without services ie splitting the 4 freedoms (& when goods & services are often intertwined in one product)? 2.
Why wd EU agree to this without free movement of people? And why wd it agree to it without services ie splitting the 4 freedoms (& when goods & services are often intertwined in one product)? 2.
Why assume fisheries – access to waters – can simply be left out of this v special, cherry-picking deal to benefit of UK? EU won’t go along w this. Why assume EU wd let UK collect its tariffs for all trade? 3.
Why abandon services? May said to believe can offer a good migration deal for EU in return for good mkt access – seems unlikely. NIESR estimates on a Canada-style deal or WTO UK-EU services trade cd fall 61% 4.
Services are 80% of UK economy and accounted for 39% of UK exports to EU in 2017; UK had a £14bn surplus in services w EU in 2017 & global UK services trade at record high in 2016 with a £92.4 bn surplus in services trade 5.
NB This is a range of services not only financial services also professional, scientific and technical and information and communication services amongst others 6.
And what about dispute settlement – an EFTA-style court maybe in which case why not join EFTA/EEA but in that case why not stay in EU? 7.
So overall, why give up UK voice, seat at table & vote on goods & services regulation in EU, to be a rule-taker in goods/agriculture and do huge damage to services sector? And why wd EU go along w this. Unicorns, cake or just political desperation/lunacy 8. ends
