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Kirsty Hughes @KirstyS_Hughes
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
A few thoughts on May’s potential latest Brexit idea, if cabinet agrees:

Idea (perhaps) to essentially stay in EU single mkt for goods & agriculture, not for fisheries nor services. Leave CU but have a customs partnership almost mimicking CU but allowing own trade deals 1.
Various problems:

Why wd EU agree to this without free movement of people? And why wd it agree to it without services ie splitting the 4 freedoms (& when goods & services are often intertwined in one product)? 2.
Why assume fisheries – access to waters – can simply be left out of this v special, cherry-picking deal to benefit of UK? EU won’t go along w this. Why assume EU wd let UK collect its tariffs for all trade? 3.
Why abandon services? May said to believe can offer a good migration deal for EU in return for good mkt access – seems unlikely. NIESR estimates on a Canada-style deal or WTO UK-EU services trade cd fall 61% 4.
Services are 80% of UK economy and accounted for 39% of UK exports to EU in 2017; UK had a £14bn surplus in services w EU in 2017 & global UK services trade at record high in 2016 with a £92.4 bn surplus in services trade 5.
NB This is a range of services not only financial services also professional, scientific and technical and information and communication services amongst others 6.
And what about dispute settlement – an EFTA-style court maybe in which case why not join EFTA/EEA but in that case why not stay in EU? 7.
So overall, why give up UK voice, seat at table & vote on goods & services regulation in EU, to be a rule-taker in goods/agriculture and do huge damage to services sector? And why wd EU go along w this. Unicorns, cake or just political desperation/lunacy 8. ends
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More from @KirstyS_Hughes see all

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The Boles Norway Plus option - a short thread:
1. Irish backstop 'falls away': but since UK cd leave EEA, EU will insist Irish backstop is permanently available
2. UK to leave CAP/CFP - so then there needs to be specific arrangements for NI as now in backstop so no friction for agric/fish products at border
- so there would be NI/UK differentiation
3. All EEA members have to agree to UK joining incl EU27 so why wd they not insist on discussing fisheries agreement in parallel?
Also EU wd surely insist that any customs union did not include fisheries products i.e. Scottish/UK fisheries face tariffs/delays at borders
Read 9 tweets
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Political Declaration:

Structure is as proposed by Barnier months back ie Economic Partnership, Security Partnership, Cooperation on Areas of Interest (research etc)

Big Question: Will this be 'Canada Dry' or 'Turkey Plus'
1.
'Ambitious, broad, deep, flexible' partnership means v little ie a free trade agreement (FTA) or customs union plus cooperation on law/justice, foreign policy, security, defence. There won't be frictionless trade,not same rights or obligs as w EU mship, integrity of EU's CU/SM 2.
So big hit to trade in goods & services given not frictionless borders, espec to services given aim for goods is no tariffs/quotas nor rules of origin checks - but will be regulatory checks; proposals for services - equivalence, 'ambitious' etc beyond WTO (not v ambitious) 3.
Read 12 tweets
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ScotTories/Tomkins (AT) want uniform Brexit across UK, wd deny a backstop for Northern Ireland to avoid any encouragement (in their view) to indy in Scotland. Lets look at their arguments (thread) ft.com/content/60b7a8… via @financialtimes
AT: ‘Brexit looks v different..viewed from Scotland. Not because Scots voted by 62 per cent to 38 per cent to remain’
Dismissive of all Scottish ‘remain’ support; LibDem, Lab, SNP, Green voters support remain at over 70%. AT’s argument is for Tory not Scottish unionist voters 2.
AT: ‘Leaving the EU can be an opportunity to strengthen the UK and cement Scotland’s place in it’
But a v large amount of expert evidence shows Brexit will damage UK & Scottish trade, growth, jobs, opportunities for Scots in EU, opportunities for EU citizens in Scotland 3.
Read 16 tweets

Related threads

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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Reading and tweeting HMG's White Paper.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Starting with the conclusions (always the best bit)
1 Principled and practical are TM's new adjectves for #Brexit, which sounds conciliatory and is the sort of thing the EU do want to hear.
2
a Frictionless trade at the border (specific border not stated)
b UK out CAP & Fisheries, but in on crime & terror & shared prosperity fund
c No hard Border between NI & I, but protect the Union
d End of CJEU in UK, return "accountability" to the various elected assemblies
Read 59 tweets
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Services: 80% of UK economy (architecture, management consulting, legal, creative etc) & big services surplus UK runs with RoW & EU. So why does Govt want to damage economy in #Brexit plan being discussed by cabinet today (focusing on goods only?) ft.com/content/2ce78f… via @FT
And anyway services get bundled in today's global value chains for high-value high-tech goods (c. Aircraft engines & their maintenance) which is what UK government is supposed to be promoting via its (mysterious) industrial policy announced back in 2016.
If you wanted a better trade & industrial policy for UK (which is desirable to create high-paying jobs via higher productivity) you wouldn't put it together in the way that #Brexit is taking us (raising barriers to trading with UK's big EU markets).
Read 8 tweets
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1/ Small thread on Fish - hot topic of the day & cause of so many angy replies on my Timeline.
The big question: How can it be that an industry that has less full time employees than a village - circa 8 500 people - be so controversial?
How can this be driving our #Brexit future?
2/ first some context - not only does fishing (traditionally understood) employ barely a village - but this is not new.

UKs fishermen great decline happened post WWII but pre EEC.

In economic terms fishing is barely 0.1% of UK GDP!
gov.uk/government/sta… chap 1, table 1.2
3/ Next the UK imports much of the fish it eats & exports much of the fish it catches - there are complex reasons for this but a main one is taste.

Thats how trade works.

UK doesnt import fish "because of EU", it imports fish because it prefers to do so rather than eat its own.
Read 14 tweets

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