Thread by @KirstyS_Hughes

ScotTories/Tomkins (AT) want uniform Brexit across UK, wd deny a backstop for Northern Ireland to avoid any encouragement (in their view) to indy in Scotland. Lets look at their arguments (thread) ft.com/content/60b7a8… via @financialtimes

AT: ‘Brexit looks v different..viewed from Scotland. Not because Scots voted by 62 per cent to 38 per cent to remain’
Dismissive of all Scottish ‘remain’ support; LibDem, Lab, SNP, Green voters support remain at over 70%. AT’s argument is for Tory not Scottish unionist voters 2.

AT: ‘Leaving the EU can be an opportunity to strengthen the UK and cement Scotland’s place in it’
But a v large amount of expert evidence shows Brexit will damage UK & Scottish trade, growth, jobs, opportunities for Scots in EU, opportunities for EU citizens in Scotland 3.

AT: ‘mishandled [Brexit] is also the greatest single risk to the union.’
Recent polls show Brexit is likely to increase indy support. Theresa May & the Tories can’t control the dynamics of Scottish public opinion (given they don’t represent majority Scottish views on Brexit) 4.

AT: ‘from a Scottish Conservative and Unionist perspective.....there can be no separate Brexit deal for each of the nations that comprise the UK’
Ruling out a NI-specific backstop implies a readiness to risk v damaging no deal Brexit for UK &/or to damage Irish peace process, 5

And the UK-EU Joint Report, last December, agreed a 3 stage approach to ensure no hard Irish border, including an option of ‘specific solutions’ for NI. Why have the Scottish Tories waited til now to disagree? 6.

AT: ‘future trading relations with the bloc must be the same for the whole of the UK..to Arlene Foster this is a blood-red line’
Arlene Foster doesn’t represent NI public, there’s no executive, majority in NI voted remain, polls show % supporting remain has risen substantially 7

If AT supports May red lines on no CU or single mkt then there will not be frictionless borders. That means either a hard Irish border, with related threat to peace, or differentiation for NI. So which is it? 8.

Why are Scottish Tories so fearful differentiation for NI means the same for Scotland? Scotland has diffferent economic structures, land & sea borders, so copying a NI deal may not make sense. It wd need May to ask for it, EU to accept – May won’t, EU unlikely & now too late. 9.

AT: ‘And if [Brexit]..is proving tortuous, imagine the chaos that would be unleashed by wrenching Scotland out of a 300-year union’
So is Brexit ‘tortuous’ or an ‘opportunity’? UK’s domestic market currently is EU single mkt, why shouldn’t Scottish govt want to stay in that? 10

Do Scottish Tories think UK/EU border will be frictionless, almost so or damagingly hard after Brexit? Scotland staying in EU single mkt not damaging if rUK has a frictionless border with EU. So which is it – frictionless or hard (the latter v damaging for all UK economy)? 11.

AT says SNP want: ‘special dispensation.. so that the Scottish economy can continue to operate as if it were in both the customs union & the single market.’ But this is not entirely accurate & Scot govt policy has 3 stages: 12

Scottish govt policy clearly states preference for 1/ UK to remain in EU, 2/ in its recent publication, UK to remain in CU/Smkt (least damaging economically, v problematic democratically), & 3/ Scotland to stay in single mkt (& not CU as AT states). 13.

Also worth noting Scottish parliament voted 92-0, a week after the Brexit vote, for Scotland to stay in EU or single mkt (only Tories abstaining). 14.

AT: ‘Brexit needs to be handled in a manner that is sensitive to all parts of the UK ..But any sort of differentiated deal would simply hand the nationalists what they have always wanted. No unionist could ever endorse that.’ 15.

There’s no special deal in sight for Scotland but Scottish Tories, the party that brought us Brexit, are ready to damage Irish peace process for own unionist concerns. If they really want to protect the Union, they wd speak out for remain & against growing damage of Brexit. Ends