Many people still seem to think that May's deal is for a soft Brexit. Quick thread to explain why I think this is seriously misguided (1)
First it's clear from the political declaration that the EU is offering an FTA. It's an ambitious FTA, but still just an FTA. The emphasis is on regulatory autonomy - the word 'autonomy' is used 12 times. (2)
Regulatory autonomy rules out EEA/Swiss/Ukraine models according to Commission's famous staircase - we're left with a Canada-style arrangement. From the wording of the political declaration, that logic still holds (3) 
It's true that the political declaration does refer to alignment of rules. But the wording here is critical: it says 'United Kingdom will consider aligning with Union rules'. Implication that this is an autonomous decision, not harmonisation (ie no common rulebook). (4)
Similarly, when the political declaration says alignment of rules will be taken into account when applying checks and controls, it's unlikely this means that the UK will harmonise with EU rules and this will remove need for checks. (5)
Instead, as @mattholehouse has pointed out, it just means that EU could reduce *intensity* of checks on the basis that UK has autonomously decided to retain EU rules. (6)
But what about the backstop, some might argue - surely this could lock the UK into a closer relationship with the EU? Well, a bit, but not as much as people might think. (7)
The backstop includes a UK-EU customs union, that's true. But this is a bare-bones customs union. As the Commission's chart below shows, it does not remove the need for the vast majority of checks. (8)
All it does is remove customs duties (which the FTA would also do in any case) and replace rules of origin checks with checks on proof of status of free circulation. All other checks will still apply (9)
Neither does this bare-bones customs union especially lock UK into EU rules. Yes, we'd have to follow parts of EU trade policy - e.g. on tariffs. Would also have to follow state aid rules. But otherwise claims of UK being a vassal state are largely overblown. (10)
The exception of course is Northern Ireland, where a number of EU rules would still apply. But this was always inevitable and even here the rules are limited to the minimum to ensure a soft border (e.g. NI is not required to follow many parts of EU environment acquis) (11)
Moreover, as @SamuelMarcLowe has pointed out, in the future it should be quite possible for GB to exit customs union in the backstop if UK govt so wished, provided all the NI parts of the backstop remained in place (12)
So all in all, it's not true to say that May has sacrificed sovereignty of UK to get a soft Brexit - quite the opposite in fact. Unless we change course, the direction of travel is very much still towards a hard Brexit. (13)
