First #Brexit piece of 2019.
Short version:
1/ Number 10 focussed on second Commons vote;
2/ Slightly softer than consensus on EU. Meaningful concessions from Bxl unlikely until very last-minute to limit room for Eurosceptics to demand more. So after first vote.
Short version:
1/ Number 10 focussed on second Commons vote;
2/ Slightly softer than consensus on EU. Meaningful concessions from Bxl unlikely until very last-minute to limit room for Eurosceptics to demand more. So after first vote.
1/ It's true that default position under EU Withdrawal Act 2018 is that UK will leave on 29 March unless Parliament passes new legislation
2/ However, May has privately warned some Tory MPs that some legislation is needed to implement a no deal exit
3/ The 107 no deal technical notices published by Govt so far commit it to creating/expanding 15 quangos, further legislation in 51 areas and negotiation of 40 new international agreements with EU or other countries before exit
4/ A majority of MPs in all parties oppose no deal and recognise that a motion passed by the Commons opposing no deal would not be binding; legislation would be needed
5/ Per above, a significant number of MPs believe they will have plenty of opportunities to amend the above measures/other emergency legislation to prevent a no deal. May also referred to them at the 1922 Committee meeting in December
6/ The other way of preventing no deal would be for Govt to bring in legislation to extend or (less likely) revoke Article 50. There would almost certainly be a big majority in favour of extension
7/ Based on above and mood in Parliament, think odds of no deal exit are low (10%). Risk of a general election probably higher (15%). #Brexit
