I've tried here to map out the shortest path between each option following a failed Meaningful Vote to each outcome of the Art.50 process, as measured by positive decisions required
#MySundayEvening
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#MySundayEvening
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To note: I'm making various assumptions here, most obviously the treatment of each decision point as equal in weight and likelihood of happening.
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That aside, you'll note that the pathway to no-deal is always the shortest, as it usually only requires failure to complete one thing.
As default, you can never rule it out until you have secured an alternative
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As default, you can never rule it out until you have secured an alternative
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Also, a second referendum is the easiest path to remaining, which is why supporters of the latter are pushing the former so much
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Finally, I'll note that leaving with the current WA/PD package looks less problematic than many of the other outcomes in most scenarios, which means you shouldn't write it off too soon
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Comments/corrections welcome
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