So let's talk about this.... (thread)
Everyone knows I've worked the Iowa Caucuses twice, because Berners will NOT SHUT UP about it.
The article I wrote about it here -->>
sallyal.ink/Iowa2012
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The article I wrote about it here -->>
sallyal.ink/Iowa2012
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So in 2008 Dems started with 6 candidates. 3 dropped out in the Fall, so we had three competing by the Caucus. That year they were mid January I think.
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So as the Caucuses get closer, campaigns ramp up. So they need more staff.
And who is experienced and available and in Iowa already? The staff of the other three campaigns.
Some of them use their own connections, some get jobs as part of an endorsement negotiation.
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And who is experienced and available and in Iowa already? The staff of the other three campaigns.
Some of them use their own connections, some get jobs as part of an endorsement negotiation.
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Here's how the Democratic Caucuses work (up to now, apparently they are making huge changes and they need to):
There's a big room full of people, all the Dems in the county. There might be coffee. There are not enough chairs.
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There's a big room full of people, all the Dems in the county. There might be coffee. There are not enough chairs.
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Reps from each campaign make remarks. They are not generally brief remarks. Then they go stand under a poster in their designated space along the wall
A smart strategy is to pull all the chairs as close to your area as possible. Of course the other teams are doing this too
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A smart strategy is to pull all the chairs as close to your area as possible. Of course the other teams are doing this too
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Ridiculous, right? It gets worse.
"Voters" go stand under the poster of their candidate of choice. This why the chairs are so important.
When each candidate is called, they literally raise their hands to vote.
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"Voters" go stand under the poster of their candidate of choice. This why the chairs are so important.
When each candidate is called, they literally raise their hands to vote.
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If a candidate doesn't get 15%, their candidates are released to vote for someone else on the 2nd ballot, so everyone shuffles around and they count again.
Some people leave at this point. It's late and it's cold and it's past their bedtime.
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Some people leave at this point. It's late and it's cold and it's past their bedtime.
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In 2008 it was logical to think the Richardson people would caucus with Hillary on the 2nd ballot. He was in Bill's cabinet, she was the front runner. It seems like the smart move.
But they didn't.
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But they didn't.
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Richardson made a deal with the Obama campaign
Richardson's organizers were thoroughly trained in delegate math. They had specific instructions about what to do when.
The goal was to keep Hillary from winning as many county caucuses as possible.
It worked. She came in 3rd.
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Richardson's organizers were thoroughly trained in delegate math. They had specific instructions about what to do when.
The goal was to keep Hillary from winning as many county caucuses as possible.
It worked. She came in 3rd.
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There's a saying: There are three lanes out of Iowa.
In 2008, only Hillary, Obama, and Edwards made it out.
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In 2008, only Hillary, Obama, and Edwards made it out.
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The Republican side does things a little differently but only slightly less dysfunctional.
I've never been to one, but from what I understand the key difference is they vote on paper instead of raising their hands.
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I've never been to one, but from what I understand the key difference is they vote on paper instead of raising their hands.
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So in 2012 we had Obama, and they had 14 candidates trying to run against Obama.
It was going to be Romney, it was always going to be Romney, but they had to let it play out, because you never know.
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It was going to be Romney, it was always going to be Romney, but they had to let it play out, because you never know.
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Summer before the Caucuses, RPI (state party) used to host a huge fundraising event, the Iowa Straw Poll.
I've never been but it sounds like a big fair, booths with food & bands & booze. "Voters" walk around and party and then submit their ballot at one of the booths.
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I've never been but it sounds like a big fair, booths with food & bands & booze. "Voters" walk around and party and then submit their ballot at one of the booths.
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So the goal is to have as many people there as possible who are going to vote for you.
I know that's self-explanatory, but my point is, you have to get them there.
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I know that's self-explanatory, but my point is, you have to get them there.
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Campaigns would buy blocks of tickets and give them away to volunteers & supporters. The money went to RPI
You weren't obligated to vote for the candidate you got your ticket from but that's of course the point. IDK if it was secret ballot or if you had to give it to them
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You weren't obligated to vote for the candidate you got your ticket from but that's of course the point. IDK if it was secret ballot or if you had to give it to them
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Campaigns would work all summer organizing for the Straw Poll, 6-8 months before the actual Caucuses. A good showing would bring the money, media, and momentum.
It was supposed to be a reliable predictor of who would do well in the Caucuses the following year.
It wasn't.
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It was supposed to be a reliable predictor of who would do well in the Caucuses the following year.
It wasn't.
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In 2008, Romney won the Straw Poll, Huckabee won Iowa, and McCain was GOP nominee
In 2012, Michele Bachmann won the Straw Poll, Santorum won Iowa*, and Romney was GOP nominee.
*It was first called for Romney but a county chair went home to bed without turning in his tally
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In 2012, Michele Bachmann won the Straw Poll, Santorum won Iowa*, and Romney was GOP nominee.
*It was first called for Romney but a county chair went home to bed without turning in his tally
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2011 Iowa Straw Poll results:
1. Bachmann
2. Ron Paul
3. Pawlenty
4. Santorum
5. Caine
6. Perry (write in)
7. Romney (didn't compete)
Pawlenty dropped out after that. He'd been considered Romney's only real threat.
Crazy, right? 3rd place finish destroyed his career.
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1. Bachmann
2. Ron Paul
3. Pawlenty
4. Santorum
5. Caine
6. Perry (write in)
7. Romney (didn't compete)
Pawlenty dropped out after that. He'd been considered Romney's only real threat.
Crazy, right? 3rd place finish destroyed his career.
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That was the year everyone was the front runner for 15 minutes, but I don't think anyone ever thought Bachmann had a chance.
So basically they all spent money, effort and resources to entice people to drink beer, listen to country music and hopefully vote for your guy.
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So basically they all spent money, effort and resources to entice people to drink beer, listen to country music and hopefully vote for your guy.
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Out of the original 14, only 7 competed in the Caucuses. We all know how that primary turned out.
Most of them hung in until delegate-rich Florida, then it became a Santorum-Romney horse race. In the media at least.
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Most of them hung in until delegate-rich Florida, then it became a Santorum-Romney horse race. In the media at least.
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Iowa is important because it's first. Campaigns spend almost a year in IA and New Hampshire because you have to do well in one of those to get to the next two. Other states might get a month.
Most candidates are winnowed out after South Carolina (4th)
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Most candidates are winnowed out after South Carolina (4th)
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Whether you like it or not, you have to compete. And you have to compete on their terms.
More details here: sallyal.ink/Iowa2012
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More details here: sallyal.ink/Iowa2012
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Giuliani's 2008 campaign is a cautionary tale. He was pretty sure he wouldn't do well in the 4 early states - IA, NH, NV, SC- so he didn't campaign there. He directed his energy in Florida, which was 5th that year.
But by then, it was over. No one even remembered his name
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But by then, it was over. No one even remembered his name
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Trump in 2016 should be a cautionary tale, even though he ended up winning the nomination anyway.
Remember how he skipped the Ames debate and threw a "Veterans Event" instead?
His staff BEGGED him not to.
He lost Iowa.
So, in true Trump fashion, he fired his Iowa staff.
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Remember how he skipped the Ames debate and threw a "Veterans Event" instead?
His staff BEGGED him not to.
He lost Iowa.
So, in true Trump fashion, he fired his Iowa staff.
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But the fact remains, he disrespected Iowa, and Iowa punished him.
So that's why we pay so much attention to Iowa.
Hopefully after 2016 there will be significant reforms
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So that's why we pay so much attention to Iowa.
Hopefully after 2016 there will be significant reforms
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Point is, every candidate will compete in Iowa, but most won't actually make it to the Caucuses. Even fewer make it out of Iowa.
NH might grant a few reprieves- they like to be contrary- but we're talking 5-6 candidates.
And they aren't going to be everyone's favorites.
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NH might grant a few reprieves- they like to be contrary- but we're talking 5-6 candidates.
And they aren't going to be everyone's favorites.
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2016 wasn't ever close, but in 2020 we're going to be reshuffling every few weeks as the field winnows down.
Your opinions are going to shift. Your allegiances are going to change. You will probably have to compromise or, god forbid, settle.
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Your opinions are going to shift. Your allegiances are going to change. You will probably have to compromise or, god forbid, settle.
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So keep in mind, the other candidates and their supporters are not your enemies.
Try to keep an open mind. It will be easier when you have to make tough decisions if you haven't vilified the rest of the field.
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Try to keep an open mind. It will be easier when you have to make tough decisions if you haven't vilified the rest of the field.
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What Bernie Sanders did in 2016 is NOT normal. You never see primary candidates attacking each other the way he attacked Hillary.
She and Obama threw a little shade, but nothing like what he did.
We are supposed to all be on the same team.
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She and Obama threw a little shade, but nothing like what he did.
We are supposed to all be on the same team.
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And you NEVER see the loser attacking the winner after they've definitively LOST like Bernie did
Yes, in 08 Hillary stayed in until then end. She had every right to.
That race was MUCH closer. And after Obama became the presumptive nominee, she never mentioned his name.
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Yes, in 08 Hillary stayed in until then end. She had every right to.
That race was MUCH closer. And after Obama became the presumptive nominee, she never mentioned his name.
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I think it's great there's so much enthusiasm and we have so many terrific options.
Just remember your 1st choice may not make it very far, so keep an open mind towards the other campaigns and pay attention to what the other candidates have to offer.
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Just remember your 1st choice may not make it very far, so keep an open mind towards the other campaigns and pay attention to what the other candidates have to offer.
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Note: This was my dry run. I'm going to clean it up and send it again at a better time.
I welcome your feedback.
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I welcome your feedback.
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