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Holger Hestermeyer @hhesterm
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
You’d like to be informed rather than read a piece that doesn’t even get the statistics of U.K. trade right? Read this report on the WTO ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
The article claims ‘60 per cent and rising of our trade with other countries is done on WTO terms.’...
In 2017 the EU accounted for 44% of U.K. exports, 53% of U.K. imports - and that’s just part of the story ... researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-…
... because a further 13% of total U.K. trade is done under EU FTAs parliament.uk/documents/impa…
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This has impressively strange statements from all three speakers. So some simple facts (thread)
1) No unilateral extension of Art. 50. Extension requires all Member States and the UK to agree. That’s Art. 50(3) of the TEU
2) The other two speakers speculated about what it would take for other member states to agree. Yes, a game changer. But that’s certainly not a new government with a new negotiation plan from scratch. “We don’t like it, let’s start over” is not a likely option.
Read 4 tweets
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I do not have the time for a full analysis - but allow me to point out some obvious shortcomings. As one of the authors can and does claim particular WTO expertise, I will not be as forgiving as I am with people who have no prior experience. (Thread)
The document claims to give us 30 truths about leaving on WTO terms. Allow me to link it again here for your convenience: globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl…
Let’s start easy: the introduction suggests that the backstop can be replaced by a full FTA. Easy. Tusk is willing to do it. This is wrong. 1) we cannot negotiate a full future relationship in 3 months 2) remember the sequencing we agreed to?
Read 34 tweets
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My new explanation of this is, if you want, a version of path-dependency. Let me explain (short thread)
I had an aha moment at a recent conference, where a very experienced politician said that the current deadlock could only be resolved by a referendum or a general election.
What I found surprising was the mention of a general election. When the audience pointed out that both major parties have the same problem that they are split by Brexit, he conceded rapidly that a GE does not hold out the prospect of help.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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🤔Is there any correlation between ⁦@TeaPainUSA⁩ “Major Alfa Bank-Trump Tower Breakthrough” And the IRA ad traffic report⁉️ teapainusa.wordpress.com/2018/06/05/maj…
💥Here’s the IRA troll traffic report w graphs of peak traffic time. I’m wondering if there was coordination via Alfa Bank and Trump & DeVos servers...🤔💥 comprop.oii.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
🤔I’m just thinking out loud but I’m looking at @TeaPainUSA graph compared to the IRA troll traffic graphs and they seem to have traffic that is similar... although that does NOT necessarily mean there is coordination...
Read 4 tweets
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Report on social media polarization commissioned by Senate Intel Committee done by the Computational Propaganda Research Project at the Oxford Institute comprop.oii.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
“all [IRA] Instagram posts garnered almost 185 million likes and users commented about 4 million times [across 116,205 posts]”

Commercial influencer agencies pay Instagram stars to make product placements. Kim Kardashian charges $250,000 per post for ~2 million likes.
Compare Instagram activity against Facebook activity. See how the Facebook ads were not the story here? See how Facebook’s initial claim that $100K of ads “no big deal” was a deception? Instagram was not a major topic of Congressional hearings. It should have been. Via @oiioxford
Read 8 tweets
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NEW: @KuperSimon & @emmavj delve into the growing attainment gap between girls and boys in UK schools, and ask how boys can catch up ft.com/content/3b2509…

How bad have things got? A chart thread follows:
(1/3) I dug into the numbers to see when and where boys start falling behind ft.com/content/d53298….

The focus tends to be on exam results, but participation is arguably the bigger issue:

Between 16 and 18, boys are dropping out of the system in huge numbers.
(2/3) The effects are felt at university, where the participation gap between young women and men is getting ever wider.

Last year there were 4 new female students for every 3 males.
Read 10 tweets
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Hard brexiteers don't care there is no majority in parlaiment for 'no deal'. They don't care that there is no majority in the country for 'no deal'. Nonetheless, they are ideologically committed to it and will pursue that aim relentlessly now. They can't be appeased.
Lost plenty of Brexiteer followers for my criticism of the 'no deal' or 'WTO option', but it isn't a recent development. I've been warning that this would be a terrible scenario since before the ref. The research I based these stark warnings on was unequivocal about it.
Post-referendum there has been an increase in the prominence in trade experts & legal experts, who have also warned about the consequences of 'no deal', and their expertise has seeped into the writings of some very good political commentators. The facts are out there.
Read 21 tweets
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So, as you may have seen, the @UKandEU report on a #NoDeal Brexit is out today. ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upl… And whilst, obvs, most of you are already immersed in it, thought I'd attempt q quick summary for the lazy people (1)
We try to explain what No Deal means. There is a tendency to elide it with 'trading on WTO terms'. Which, of course, would be possible with a withdrawal agreement. We also make clear the crucial point that, unlike with most 'deals.' default outcome is not the status quo. (2)
We deliberately pick the worst case. Where we leave with no deal at all. Which, as we point out, we do not think is by any manner of means the most likely outcome. That being said, however, we argue that, in the event of a no deal, mitigations will be hard (3)
Read 25 tweets
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I am still following UUK, Employers Pension Forum (ucea.ac.uk/en/empres/pens…), Aon around. Still fascinated by how futures are made. #ucustrike #USSstrike
This time I'll excerpt from 2 documents stored on the UUK website: universitiesuk.ac.uk/policy-and-ana… & universitiesuk.ac.uk/policy-and-ana… NB Both still carry a 'confidential' watermark, but there isn't any firewall #ucustrike #ussstrike
We know from recent events that UUK isn't always the most technologically proficient. Maybe they forgot to take the watermark off. Maybe they forgot to put them behind the firewall. Who knows. #ussstrike #ucustrike
Read 29 tweets

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