Interesting dynamics at play in @AugurProject regarding the outcome of the "Which party will control the House after 2018 U.S. mid-term election?" market that just expired. Here are the facts:
The Democrats won the election, but the market expiration date was 12/10/18. Because the date was not specified in the market & expiration date is 12/10/18, one could argue that Republicans is correct outcome. Democrats don’t officially take control until 1/3/19.
This brings back age old “code is law” debate. Code is law camp argues Republicans is the correct outcome. While the intent of most participants may have been to bet on the election outcome, the language in Augur didn't ask that. Republicans still control the House on 12/10/18
The other side argues that people used Augur as an alternative to traditional prediction market platforms on election day with the intent to bet on the election, so Augur should be pragmatic & report the outcome in the spirit of the intent of most participants.
There is a cryptoeconomic mechanism baked into Augur to determine the result. Anyone can stake REP to dispute the initial report (<$100 risked initially). The result can be disputed 13 times (at which point $1M+ is risked). if there’s still a dispute Augur will split in two
If majority of REP holders are pragmatists, market will ultimately resolve Democrats. If majority of REP holders are in code is law camp, market will resolve Republicans. I’m personally in the pragmatist camp but see both sides & excited to see this play out over the coming weeks
For newcomers to cryptocurrency that feel it may be too late, that couldn’t be further from the truth. There are many new platforms emerging with big potential that have very few people spending the time to really understand them. Augur is one of them.
