1.The turnout numbers for the special election in OH12 got me thinking. It's a good example of the worst case we can expect going into the 2018 midterms especially for the House elections.
2. I'm not going to go back and look at every election to make sure but if my memory serves me, I've yet to see any dem turnout that has been more than the 2016 turnout. There may have been one or two but on the whole the 2016 dem turnout is the high water mark.
3. Even the VA elections last year that saw a big dem turnout for the Governor election was down by 500,000 compared to the 2016 turnout. True, it was higher than normal governor elections but again it didn't overcome the high water mark of the 2016 presidential election.
4. Some things about turnout. Primary turnout is always less then general election turnout. Turnout in special elections is always less then general turnout and mid-terms turnout is always less than a turnout during presidential elections.
5. The dems 2016 turnout so far as been the high water mark. That means the dems aren't attracting new voters. So far any "victory" the dems have managed has been due to higher turnout compared to normal turnout for that election without the GOP matching that higher turnout.
6. GOP turnout has not been down. It's been normal and in some cases like TENN and TX primaries have been higher than normal FOR THAT ELECTION, Dem turnout has been higher than normal FOR THAT ELECTION. That's an important point here.
7. In the grand scheme of things what this means is that the GOP just has to match the increased dem turnout with their own increase turnout and nothing will change. Nothing.
8. I've used the physics of real waves interaction to explain this the other day. If the GOP can match their turnout with the dems increased turnout both "waves" will cancel each other out. It's called Destructive Interference
9. What the hell does all this gobbledygook mean you ask? When did we get in the weeds without a GPS? Hold on, the point is coming. Using last week's OH12 as an example we can map out the worst case and game how the midterms will play out.
10. The dems directed millions at that election. They pushed for turnout in a way that will be impossible in the midterms for every election and they came up with about a 90% turnout of the 2016 election. Notice this isn't a "wave", it's just the same voters wanting a do over
11. Meanwhile some reports are out there saying many of the GOP voters didn't even know there was an election. Other reports suggest the nevertrumpers were trying to keep turnout down. Regardless the GOP got about a normal turnout of 40% for a special election.
12. Thus, looking ahead to midterms if nothing is done, if no special effort is made by the GOP and all the effort possible is made by the Dems we can expect a worst case of about 90% turnout of the dems 2016 numbers and a normal mid term turnout of the GOP.
13. Knowing this it's not hard to see how many seats are really in play in this worst case and extrapolate how many GOP seats become increasingly safe as the turnout numbers of the GOP ramp up.
14. While it's not foolproof, Open seats, local scandals, redistricting, etc play a role here the vast majority of seats can be determined to be in play or not by taking the dems 2016 turnout numbers and comparing it to the 2014 GOP mid-term numbers.
15. Remember this is the absolute WORST case that can happen. Even with a 24/7 fakenews attack, nevertrumpers and a lackluster GOTV effort the GOP managed to get the "normal" turnout for OH12. Midterms shouldn't be any different.
16. On the flip side the dems made every effort they could GOTV. Spending millions, pushing the race from Hollywood, on their fakenews etc and got 90% of the vote out. So from a GOP POV this is the WORST case unless something occurs in the next 3 months to drive down turnout.
17. Some quick take-a-ways from this conclusion. ANYTHING that drives up the GOP turnout will save seats. That means Pres Trump is a plus no matter which district he goes too.
18. The people saying he will drive up dem turnout aren't paying attention. It's already up. If he drives up GOP turnout he is matching the dem increase. It's why every GOP in a marginal seat should be begging Trump to come to their district. Everyone.
19. Making the race nationalized at this point is the best strategy for the GOP. They want their voters to turn up at 2016 numbers and for that you need a President on the ticket.
20. No matter what the media tells you, 2018 will be a base election. The dems base hasn't stood down since Nov 2016. Now they may be demoralized before Nov 2018, anything is possible; but you must plan for worst case to be successful.
21. GOTV efforts will be the king jewel of this election. The side that gets their base out wins. The thought that you need to get the moderates to swing your way is not an option this election. 2018 is about driving the base to the polls.
22. The moderates will come along or they won't. On the positive side the dems have to do the same and that means going socialist. So, most thinking rational moderates will swing towards the GOP IMO.
23. Also important to remember. this is the WORST case. Historically turnout is much less for midterms than Presidential elections. Also GOP has a turnout advantage in avg mid terms because of the nature of their voters.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-re…
fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-re…
24. My guess is that with Trump and the RNC plan to GOTV turnout will be higher than a normal midterm. Without the massive effort by the dem that we saw in OH12 & other special elections the turnout for the dems will be a bit higher but nowhere near the 90% level we saw in OH12
25. You factor those two together and you start to approach Destructive Interference. Okay that concludes the trip through the weeds for tonight. Hope I didn't lose anyone on the journey.
