Thread: Markham Hislop (@politicalham) of Energi News made a presentation at an Alberta Party-Sherwood Park fundraiser last evening. He touched on several topics. Many are laid out in detail in his “Alberta carbon tax deep dive” article energi.news/quarterly-seri… @abparty #ableg
2/ Here are some of his key remarks, as jotted down during his talk. Presented as quotes, although they’re paraphrases.
3/ There’s no data to support the claim that the Alberta carbon tax is a job killer. Yet, anyway. Studies done on BC’s carbon tax (implemented in 2008) show small losses in low-skilled jobs, balanced by increases in other areas. Overall, a wash.
4/ Oil industry executives think long-term; their support for a CTax goes back a decade or more. Prior to 2015 election they met with NGO reps to discuss path forward. They would agree to a carbon tax & a cap on GHG emissions from the oil sands in return for no cap on production.
5/ When the #abndp govt was elected, they formed a committee, comprising people from industry and academia to develop recommendations. Not surprisingly, many were based on that industry-NGO path. Govt largely accepted its recommendations in developing its Climate Leadership Plan.
6/ China will soon have the most comprehensive carbon tax program in the world, including a tax on incoming oil. Thanks to oil industry savvy and action, AB will be ready for it.
7/ On to Q&A. Do you support revenue neutrality for the CTax? Yes and no. It’s not really revenue neutral, as a portion of it is spent on programs. In retrospect, it might have been better if it was neutral.
Do you like the carbon tax? It’s a reasonable and well-designed policy
Do you like the carbon tax? It’s a reasonable and well-designed policy
8/ Note that much of AB’s heavy crude goes to the US Gulf Coast where it commands a small premium over WTI. As foreign competition lessens (due to drops in production in Venezuela, Russia), we’re the world’s #1 producer.
9/ The problem is that we can’t get our crude to market. The NEB process is okay but the wheels of govt turn too slowly. Delays caused by BC/Burnaby govts and protests upset Kinder Morgan, who asked the feds for help. Trudeau said he would, but didn’t (at least not enough).
10/ Do you like the decision to curtail production? It’s okay but would have preferred offering a royalty credit. Decision causes a rift in the industry. Some companies (esp. the major players) are getting ~80% of full price for their oil. Decision affects juniors & midcaps more.
11/ Current situation has led to the oil industry service sector having to reduce their prices or lose business. that's why both groups have turned against the carbon tax and to support the UCP.
12/ What do you think of Notley’s announcement about building a new refinery? Past studies have not recommended a new refinery. Much more in favour of a partial upgrader or petrochemical plant. China needs plastic for its manufacturing & ag sectors. Roughly 6M barrels/day worth.
13/ Re jobs… going forward, there will be a need for only about 1/3rd of geoscientists as in past. New technologies are replacing them.
14/ How get around public disgust of the carbon tax? Reform the tax, make it revenue neutral. Also need to get out there and sell it; #abndp are good policy makers but poor communicators. Message needs to be “there’s hope and optimism” re the path that’s been chosen.
