1. I tend to avoid engaging in complex analysis on twitter, but this time I must. Trump's action in Syria is irresponsible, imbecilic, based on a false depiction of reality, and runs to the strategic convictions of his own Administration. Unfortunately, Trump reduces all....
2...complex issues to the Dr. Seuss version, allowing screamers on Fox to deceive with utter idiocy. So, this feed is going to be about what is actually going on in Syria, how Trump has kneecapped his own national security strategy - or at least those of his team - and the...
3...prospects for how dangerous this is becoming.
Let's put one thing aside. While Iraq and Syria have had important victories against ISIS, the terror group has not been defeated. It is stronger than its predecessor - al Qaeda in Iraq - when it was at the top of its power...
Let's put one thing aside. While Iraq and Syria have had important victories against ISIS, the terror group has not been defeated. It is stronger than its predecessor - al Qaeda in Iraq - when it was at the top of its power...
4...so, saying "Victory! Let's leave!" is insane. They could say, ONLY in relation to ISIS, "we do not believe fighting ISIS is in the national interest of the United States." I disagree, but at least that is rationally arguable. Screaming "victory!" is not.
But, here are just..
But, here are just..
5...just a few things Trump misses.
a. Iran. In January, the Trump Admin stated that one of the objectives of staying in Syria was to prevent Iran from establishing a land corridor from Tehran to Beirut, through which it could funnel military personnel and equipment into....
a. Iran. In January, the Trump Admin stated that one of the objectives of staying in Syria was to prevent Iran from establishing a land corridor from Tehran to Beirut, through which it could funnel military personnel and equipment into....
6...the heart of the Arab world. This goal reflected the consensus of the entire U.S. government, and was cleared through the interagency process. Trump has unilaterally abandoned this because, I have no doubt, HE DOESNT UNDERSTAND what the Syrian war is about. He sees it....
7...through the simplistic "ISIS=BAD" viewpoint, which is great if you are on Fox and Friends, but is insanity if you are actually the president. Syria is at the logistical crossroads of war/peace in the middle east, and we are walking out. Because Trump doesn't understand.....
8...one of the things that could be used to put pressure on Iran - which everyone intended to do but Fox and Trump are too stupid to understand - was to use the pressures of the nuclear treaty which opened up diplomatic possibilities in pressuring Iran to stop funneling...
9...war materials to Palestine. The war broke up that, end of war will start again. Okay, so did the Administration have any other plan on how to deal with Iran in Syria? No idea. But none other than National Security Advisor Bolton explained in
August 2018 the scope of the....
August 2018 the scope of the....
10...US interests in Syria by saying it was 2 pronged - to defeat ISIS and hat not to “deal with the presence of the Iranians.” I am eager to here what Bolton now thinks, given that Trump blew that second issue off. So, we have no diplomatic pressure, no strategic interdiction...
11...now, could it be that this idiocy is part of a long game - lure Iran back into transporting military equipment through Syria, then bomb them so General Bone Spurs can feel tough? He doesn't know enough to think that through, but others might be. So how will US meet its...
12...proclaimed goal of forcing Iran out of Syria, especially when Iran is heavily invested in keeping Assad in power resuming sending its supplies to Lebanon’s
Hezbollah? It's all guesswork, but it could simply be this: "Let Putin take care of it." Botlon has said that Iran....
Hezbollah? It's all guesswork, but it could simply be this: "Let Putin take care of it." Botlon has said that Iran....
13...in Syria does not line up with Putin's interest. So it is a distinct possibility that, if they DO have any sense of what they are doing, Trump is just ceding power in that part of the world to Putin. That is clearly going on, but the added part is that are only method....
14...of defending US interests is to hope Putin does what we want. Yes, we have outsourced American national security policy to the country that is engaged in a cyberwar against us. What if Putin doesnt get Iran out? The possibility for an all-out war to the death in the....
15...Middle East escalates. Take this analysis: This is from the experts at the Army War College, writing earlier this year about the issues presenting in Syria. They make the point that, without the US pushing on the Iran issue (which it can't when it leaves, because it....
16...no longer has a spot at the negoting table), there could be a rapid escalation of war. I have attached the war college's analysis.... 
17....iow, for the haphazard attempt to give trump the applause he desperately craves, we've escalated a major national security threat to the United States. And I have no doubt - Trump has no ability to deal iwht it, because it requires understanding calculus, not arithmetic...
18...as I said, these analyses are complex. There are a lot of other issues, all of them bad. National security is never determined by "war bad." Once you're in, you have to have a strategy for leaving. The Russians didn't in Afghanistan, which gave us al Qaeda. But....
19...given that these issues are so complex, I have decided to deal with them one at a time, rather than having a 50-tweet thread. This is it for today on the "Holy God Trump is Stupid" thread about Syria. I will have so more tomorrow.
done.
done.
Note: This was supposed to say runs AGAINST the strategic convictions of his own administration
