Germany is slipping into recession because world trade growth has slowed. In 2015-16, despite ECB's QE, German growth was lackluster. Only after China injected large domestic stimulus, which caused world trade to accelerate above 4% by mid-2017, German growth too off. 1/5 
Chinese stimulus was turned off in late 2017, world trade growth began slowing and so did the German economy. World trade growth fell below the 4% threshold in mid-2018 and has stayed there. German growth has continued to slow. 2/5
The German stocks (DAX) have echoed these moves, rising in 2017 and falling since the start of 2018. World trade data is not yet available after October. But continued slide in DAX says that trade growth possibly fell further below 4% in Nov-Dec. 3/5
Lesson 1: eurozone growth remains essentially a function of world trade. ECB chatter about domestic demand compensating for lower external demand is purely arithmetical: when foreign demand declines; domestic demand has higher proportion--which does not make it more dynamic. 4/5
Lesson 2: Germany is not a global locomotive. its own domestic demand does not power growth elsewhere. But it does transmit buoyant global demand to the rest of Europe. Slowing world trade hits Europe twice: directly from slower global demand and from the German transmission. 5/5
Deeper lesson 3: Germany is descending into second-tier global competitor. This will make it harder for Germany not only to transmit global impulses to Europe, but will reinforce German reluctance to lay out German taxes to support Europe financially. bloombergquint.com/onweb/germany-…
