Thread by @StearsBusiness

THREAD.

As the year kicks off, we have broken down the Nigerian economy and created a picture of what it looks like in 2019 and beyond. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look pretty. In this thread, we will present 10 statistics about the Nigerian economy that scare us.

1) 8.2 million (@nigerianstat)

The number of youths that became unemployed between the third quarter of 2015 and the third quarter of 2018.

In Q3’15, we had 5.0 million unemployed youth. Three years later, we had 13.2 million unemployed youth, and they accounted for 30% of the youth labour force.

Our youth population has often been considered a selling point, but Nigeria’s long-running inability to create viable jobs for its growing labour force means the country is closer to a demographic disaster.

2) 66% (Budget Office of the Federation)

How much of its earnings the FG spent on servicing in its debt (paying interest on borrowed money) in the first half of 2018.

For every ₦1 Naira the FG earned in the last eighteen months, it spent nearly 70 kobo paying interest on its debt. This compares to just 22 kobo in 2012, and a previous threshold of 28 kobo identified by the DMO.

We only need to look at countries like Venezuela, Greece, and Zimbabwe to see how dangerous a public debt crisis can be.

3) 1st (@BrookingsInst)

Nigeria’s rank in countries with the highest number of poor people. According to findings compiled by The Brookings Institute, we overtook India to become the country with the highest number of poor people: 87 million.

Over 40% of the Nigerian population is currently living in poverty. The problem is only going to get worse as a result of our swelling population, weak economic growth, and rising inequality.

4) 5% (Budget Office of the Federation, @BudgITng & @cenbank)

Nigeria’s Tax-GDP ratio, making it one of the worst 10 tax collectors in the world.

Despite being the largest economy in Africa, the Nigerian Government generates less taxes than Angola (12.5%), Kenya (16.3%), and South Africa (27.3%).

5) 1987 (@nigerianstat)

The last year that economic growth in the agriculture sector was as low as it was in the second quarter of 2018 (1.2%).

Agriculture is supposed to be the star of the Nigerian economy at the moment. The government has preached the gospel of diversification and has put most of its eggs in the agriculture basket.

Despite this, economic growth in the agriculture industry is hovering around multi-decade lows as a result of the prolonged and severe violence and destruction in the Middle Belt.

6) Every 4 seconds (World Population Review)

A baby is born in Nigeria.

With a population now estimated over 200 million and a growth rate above 2.5% (7th in the world), we are set to become the 3rd most populous country in the world by 2050.

However, those 411 million people would live on just 920,000 square meters of landmass and give us a population density of 444 people per km2, compared to 60 per km2 in South Africa, 145 per km2 in China, and 225 per km2 in Ghana.

7) 13.2 million (@UNICEF)

Nigerian children were out of school in 2015, up from the last count of 10.5 million children in 2010. This means we had the highest number of out of school children in the world.

According to UNICEF data, nearly half of out-of-school children in West Africa are Nigerian.

In 2018, @BillGates warned our government to invest more in its people. The FG allocated ₦620 billion to the Ministry of Education and Universal Basic Education, representing 0.5% of its GDP, compared to nearly 6% in South Africa.

8) 6% (@cenbank)

The annual fall in the value of the naira versus the dollar between 2000 and 2017. In 2000, the @cenbank exchange rate was ₦105/$1. By 2017, it was ₦307/$1.

The exchange rate is always a sensitive topic in Nigeria, and we have bad news here: it is a fair bet to expect the naira to lose even more value in the next 18 months.

How are we so sure? Simple economics. Nigeria’s average inflation rate during that period was 12% while the U.S.’ was 2%. This means that prices rose much faster in Nigeria. The currency is only going to go one way.

9) 148th (@anticorruption)

Nigeria’s rank out of 180 countries in terms of perception of corruption.

Despite purported attempts to fight corruption, Nigeria’s score on the Transparency International assessment in 2017 was the same as it was in 2012 (27/100) and the country’s rank has actually fallen from 121st in 2008 to 148th today.

Corruption is indeed fighting back and is winning.

10) 99% (@nigerianstat)

The contribution of oil and gas products to Nigeria’s export in goods.

It’s pretty crazy, but the only thing Nigeria sells is oil (and gas). Forget what you hear about agriculture or anything else. The only physical good that Nigeria sells that is of any relevance is oil.

And then a few other numbers that didn't make our list...

Accoridng to the Medium term Expenditure Framework, the Federal Government estimates that the Nigerian economy grew by just 2.1% in 2018. This is less than our population growth rate, so income per head is actually shrinking.

And according to @AmnestyNigeria 22 Nigerian states have been affected by the farmer-herdsmen attacks between January 2016 and October 2018.

Although the conflict has been concentrated in a few states in the Middle Belt, Nigerians across 22 states have died as a result, with states as diverse as Rivers, Oyo, and Zamfara suffering.

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