If this happens, you read it here first :)
What if the Irish offered the UK a unilateral exit clause on the backstop?
Bear with me... 1/Thread
By this point, the British parliament will have demonstrated it has no appetite or majority to crash out /2
Is a UK government or parliament really going to flounce out of the backstop?
Screw up the Good Friday Agreement? Cause huge economic disruption?
I think we know the answer to that question: "no."
Quad Erat Demonstrandum /4
Why would you pull the handle if you've still got one engine running and every prospect of coaxing your craft onto a safe landing zone? /5
A 'no deal' it seems to me guarantees Varadkar's downfall.
His big backstop gambit will have blown up in his face.
If this was the ONE THING that saved the day , and guaranteed passage of the Withdrawal Agreement....mmmm. /6
Well, the 27 EU leaders now 'own' the backstop, it is no longer just a @MichelBarnier thing.
And they have set great store on backing Ireland, to show they are a Union and the little guys don't *always* get screwed.
So that makes it tricky /7
Look at the EU decision to put the all-UK customs arrangement into the Withdrawal Agreement - against the wishes of some MS and Commission Legal Service. /9
And not even that different from UK's sovereign right to walk away from any treaty - but at an economic and reputational cost. /10