The folks on the edges talk to each other.
They send txts and emails and make phone calls thinking they’re outside the sphere of scrutiny.
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We got hints of this early. Our intelligence folks picked up “signals intelligence” or SigInt from Russians talking to Russians.
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It lays out the crimes and the players though... and then prosecutors find ways to make triable cases other ways.
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Now, apply those principles to the cases we’ve seen Mueller bring forward so far.
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Likely: Flynn was confronted with the intel they had on him and knew he was cooked.
They knew the crimes. They heard and saw everything. There’d be no escape.
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He’s savvy enough to know that once they have the intel, all that’s left to do is make the case.
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Meaning, our protecting our intel capabilities is more important than any one crime they uncover.
So, ugly though this is, crimes go unpunished sometimes.
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Rick Gates - Paul Manafort’s righthand man and a member of Trump’s transition team:
Invariably picked up by counterintel for an array of foreign crimes which, again, would take work to turn into cases triable in public.
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Financial crimes, and tax crimes in particular, carry real prison time.
So, if the endgame is putting a guy away for 15 yrs...
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Remember, Al Capone rotted away in prison as a dying syphilitic on tax evasion charges.
(Capone eventually died at home at 48 years old but Alcatraz pretty much did him in.)
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Moving along to Paul Manafort.
Same story. A boatload of intel on serious crimes involving foreign actors. Charged w financial crimes instead.
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Crimes only really triable using intel.
A prosecution for his role in the Trump-Russia conspiracy would be entirely dependent on things we’d rather keep secret.
So he got a deal for the weak, unrevealing charge of lying to the FBI.
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The intel folks knowing you’re guilty and being willing to burn intel to try you are very diff things.
Papa misplayed his hand.
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1) Mueller and Co. likely fully know and understand what crimes were committed by Trump, et al.
2) They are now building prosecutable cases for a subset of them which can be tried w non-sensitive evidence.
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4) In parallel, they have invariably been referring cases...
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Those cases will go on for years and put away more people than Watergate (which resulted in 48 convictions).
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...the question isn’t whether they’re caught or whether they’ll be prosecuted.
The question is only what the public charges will be. HOW will they go down?
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1) Conspiracy to interfere w the election - since enough of that evidence is public and has already burned sources/methods
2) Obstruction - since that’s a proxy of sorts for collusion
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4) Misc. financial crimes related to the money trail for all of the above
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Mueller puts criminals in jail. He doesn’t care much about style points.
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Building prosecutions.
They aren’t investigating potential guilt.
They’re building cases to prosecute the guilty.
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We don’t know how the charges will read.
They will be a product of what Mueller can most easily publicly prosecute.
They will just be a tool to bring about serious prison time.
Mueller knows what Trump and co. have done.
No doubt.
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