Profile picture
Charles Franklin
@PollsAndVotes
, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Two quick looks at shifts in the political balance from Gallup.

I see frequent claims that Republicans have been leaving the party since 2016. I find the change modest and in part depends on with or without leaners. Neither party has surged.

1/
Source: news.gallup.com/poll/245801/am…
What has changed, slowly but steadily, is ideological self-identification, with a long term gain among liberals, decline of moderates and little trend for conservatives.

2/
Source: news.gallup.com/poll/245801/am…
The ideological balance of the parties has also shifted, most notably among Democrats where there is now a liberal majority for the first time.

3/
Among Republicans there has been a growth of conservatives, to almost 3-in-4. Moderates have declined in the party while liberals remain a trivial share.

4/
Ideological trends among independents are much weaker and inconsistent in direction. So ideological partisan sorting seems clear while nonpartisan have at most been blown by changing winds over short periods.

5/
Gallup also has a nice table of ideology by a number of demographic subgroups.

6/
Source: news.gallup.com/poll/245813/le…
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Charles Franklin
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls (>4 tweets) are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @PollsAndVotes see all

Profile picture
Charles Franklin
@PollsAndVotes
Nixon, Watergate and Partisan Opinion. This topic comes up often enough these days that I think it worthwhile to lay out the facts in some detail in hopes of clarifying how partisans and the public at large reacted and when. /1
Let's start with Nixon's approval by party over his entire term. Nixon was fairly popular through the first term, almost always over 50% approval, though hovering at or just below 50 for most of 1971. (Black line is overall approval) /2
To modern eyes the most striking fact is approval among Democrats is pretty strong: high 40s in 1969, around 40 in 1970, mid-30s in 1971, rising back to the 40s in 1972. Compare opposition party approval since 2005 has been about 10% /3
Read 18 tweets
Profile picture
Charles Franklin
@PollsAndVotes
I posted a thread on trends in party ID earlier today, linked below.

Now let’s do a little self-critique. What issues remain?

1. I used Gallup. You mileage might vary with a different pollster. Gallup has the longest history and a stable question, so good. But 1 pollster. /1
2. I used the 2004-2018 time frame. That’s pretty long but what would an even longer timeframe look like? Note the debate IS about Trump’s effect on PID now, so 2017-18 is the critical time, but a longer term perspective might be good for appreciating PID change in general. /2
3. I’m looking at aggregate change but what about individuals? Pew and CBS have great looks at this, as does Bartels. My read of their work is modest change and pretty equal for D and R. Most is in and out of Ind to lean, or lean to party.
Bartels paper:
vanderbilt.edu/csdi/includes/…
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
Charles Franklin
@PollsAndVotes
Summary: Both parties are 3-4 points below their long term (2004-18) average when EXCLUDING leaners. When leaners are included Dems are 1.5 below and Reps 1.0 below long term average. D leans are up 1.8 and R leans up 2.8 vs longrun./1
Trends in party identification popped up over the weekend as a topic for debate. I last did a deep dive on this in February. Since then trends from 2017 have flattened a bit in 2018. /2
The "hot" part of this is whether fewer people are calling themselves Republicans and if this putative decline explains why approval of Trump stays at 85% or so among the remaining Republicans. /3
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
(((John Stoehr)))
@johnastoehr
1. @LincolnMitchell is almost certainly correct. Any Republican seeking to challenge the president will fail, he said. While that’s true, so it this, I think: The incentives to challenge a weak president may be overwhelming despite that. reuters.com/article/us-mit…
2. We thought the GOP would crack up in 2016. Our timing was off by about four years.
3. At the White House this morning, Donald Trump denied that he ever worked for the Russians. This came after an explosive article in the Times Friday reporting that the FBI opened a counterintelligence investigation on the president soon after he fired James Comey.
Read 27 tweets
Profile picture
VictoryOfTheLight
@KibBitzLaw
Part 1

For over 20 years, this is how events would play out when China announced they intended to send either a probe or a manned mission to the moon.

- China makes the announcement
- Nothing happens
- They never speak of it again

Here’s why...
Part 2

Certain factions within the U.S. - mainly the old guard system in CIA / NSA / U.S. military created by the late @GeorgeHWBush as D/CIA and his predecessors - knew the truth of what we found...and who we found...on the moon with the Apollo missions.
Part 3

As a result, this faction would bribe China to quietly scrap their plans in exchange for whatever they wanted.

China could never prove what was going on up there, but took the deal from the United States.
Read 22 tweets
Profile picture
B. Lorraine Smith
@BLorraineSmith
1. Have been exploring relationship between shift to #RegenerativeEconomy, #SustainableDevelopment + #Diversity, which has led to discussions on tolerance/hate, racism/fascism, political divides. Maybe atypical territory for sustainability, yet it's key imho. Some findings:
2. Beliefs are hard to change, "convincing" people is not a viable tactic, arguing w facts only serves to further entrench if listener isn't seeking to understand. Can be frustrating - feels like arguing against gravity sometimes. Critical to realize I too am entrenched. #Listen
3. Focusing on what's wrong/bad generates energy, but not the energy we need. Better: emphasize real e.g.'s of positive alternatives, while not ignoring horrific realities. Reminds me of #BuckminsterFuller's "build new better system/render old obsolete" guidance. #Evolve
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Daughter of Confederacy
@DaughterofUSRev
The Creators of the World’s Misfortunes
by Joseph Goebbels
"One could not understand this #war if one did not always keep in mind the fact that International J//ewry stands behind all the unnatural forces that our united enemies use to attempt to deceive the world and keep humanity in the dark.
"It is, so to speak, the mortar that holds the enemy coalition firmly together, despite its differences of class, ideology, and interests.
Read 87 tweets
Profile picture
Jack de 01 (hum) metro
@ShanaBRX
Part two of this thread
Genji was lying down on his bed, awake as daytime, looking at the ceiling like it had all the answers in the universe.
He sighed, shaking his head and sitting, grabbing his holoscreen.
Internet was still limited for security reasons, which was enough for him to get bored quickly.
He was fighting so bravely something that was forming inside him, but leaving his head vacant made him start losing the battle.
"Athena?" his soft voice echoed in his almost empty quarters.
"Yes, agent Shimada?"
"Can you send Lúcio's and Hana's files to my device?"
Read 133 tweets
Profile picture
NotMyPresident
@ironstowe
THREAD

#CambridgeAnalytica #Russia ties.
1.Alexander Kogan a #CambridgeUniversity academic, who orchestrated harvesting #Facebook data, is tied to a #Russian University and had grants for researching into social media networks.
2.Alexander Kogan harvested the data in cooperation with #CambridgeAnalytica.
Read 81 tweets

Trending hashtags

#mypresident #anarchistic #Firtash #turnaround #Paparazzi #Diversity #tyranny #Trump #Brussels #ASGA18 #RichardBurt #JFK #whitehousetalk2018 #DJTrump #MarmaladeBoy #LaurenBessette #marriage #Capitalism #unmasked #Russians #RegenerativeEconomy #WinNoMatterWhat #songs #Brexit #Pedophiles
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!